EDF: Russia can launch missile strikes against Ukraine for over six months

Col. Margo Grosberg.
Col. Margo Grosberg. Source: Ken Mürk/ERR

Chief of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) intelligence center Colonel Margo Grosberg, said that Russia's present capacity to manufacture additional precise weapons means that missile strikes against Ukraine could continue for for six to nine months in the worst-case scenario.

Russia has once again launched large missile strikes against Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure in recent days. Grosberg said that such assault raids are now occurring every few weeks rather than every few months.

However, the methods have remained largely unchanged: beginning strikes throughout the night with Iranian attack drones to target Ukrainian air defense systems, followed by attacks on those systems and critical infrastructure.

Grosberg said that, according to various estimates, such attacks can last between three to nine months.

"The most optimistic prediction is at least three to four months, till spring, while the more pessimistic assessment is at least six to nine months," he said.

Grosberg said that the length of time Russia will be able to continue such attacks relies on two factors.

"How many precise weapons did Russia have prior to the war? There could have been about 2,500 plus rockets. Between half and two-thirds of this number has been already spent. Nevertheless, as seen by the most recent missile fragments, Russia has been manufacturing missiles during this war in addition to its existing stock," he said.

The number of precision-guided missiles fired has declined since the fall: while in October Russia fired triple-digit numbers of missiles at Ukraine, the monthly average has been in the double digits since November, Grosberg continued.

Our studies suggests that Russia has, for example, produced 65 more H-101 missiles in last six months.

"This shows there is a flow of high-tech components to Russia," Grosberg said, adding that it could be that Russia planned ahead of time and acquired the necessary technology before the invasion began.

Grosberg said that this analysis suggests that precision munitions could still be manufactured over an extended period of time.


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Editor: Kristina Kersa

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