The survey, conducted by pollsters Kantar Emor, found that Center polled at 14 percent in March, while in comparison with the month of February, Reform lost two percentage points of support, while Center gained two.

Meanwhile, the coalition Social Democratic Party (SDE) is now the most supported governmental party, ahead of Reform and Eesti 200.

Opposition party Isamaa remains most-supported overall.

Center's rise in support comes despite being down to six Riigikogu seats following a wave of defections in the fall and winter – a year ago, Center had 16 MPs.

Kantar Emor puts this down to non-Estonian respondents, meaning predominantly Russian-speaking voters, whose support for Center grew from 43 percent in February to 54 percent in March.

Center was always the main party of choice for Russian-speaking voters in Estonia, but that facet has become the overriding one now

Center's rating remains very low (3 percent in March, down from 4 percent in February) among Estonian-speaking respondents to the Kantar Emor survey.

For the first time since Kantar Emor has been conducting its monthly poll in its current guise, Eesti 200 and Parempoolsed, which was founded in 2022 and has no Riigikogu seats, have traded places.

Parempoolsed lie in sixth place as of March, right on the electoral threshold of 5 percent. Eesti 200 meanwhile lies a place below at 4 percent, below the threshold needed to win seats in any given electoral district, under Estonia's modified d'Hondt system of proportional representation.

Reflecting on the results, Kantar Emor's Aivar Voog noted that coverage of internal disputes within Eesti 200 has prevented the party from regaining its pre-election support level.

Parempoolsed on the other hand have been more visible in a positive light, with recent high-profile joiners including security expert and former foreign ministry secretary general Rainer Saks and climate scientist Annela Anger-Kraavi, both of whom are running for the party at the June 9 European elections.

Below the 5 percent threshold in March lay the Greens (2 percent) and the EÜVP, a pro-Kremlin party in effect, at 1 percent.

When it counts, ie. on Riigikogu election day, 2 percent is also a significant level of support, as it is the threshold above which parties can qualify for state support.

Overall the Reform-SDE-Eesti 200 combined rating (36 percent) is down on February's figure (39 percent), while opposition support has moved in the opposite direction, from 54 percent to 57 percent, according to Kantar Emor.

Support including undecided respondents

A total of 24 percent of respondents could not specify their preference, a figure unchanged from the previous month.

If taking in "don't know" responses, Isamaa polled at 21 percent in March (unchanged from February). The ratings for SDE (13 percent) and EKRE (12 percent) and the Greens (1 percent) were also the same this month and last month, using this methodology, while Reform's (13 percent in February, 12 percent in March) and Center's (8 percent in February, 8 percent this month) are largely stable too.

Parempoolsed polled at 4 percent in March if including unpledged respondents in the mix, which was double their rating by this metric in February. Eesti 200 again moved in the opposite direction and remained below the electoral threshold – from 4 percent in February to 3 percent in March, according to Kantar.

Support by demographic

Among native Estonian-speaking respondents, the most popular party remained Isamaa at 32 percent. Reform, SDE, and EKRE were all neck-and-neck, at 18 percent in March, according to Kantar.

Parempoolsed reached the 5 percent threshold among this demographic alone, Eesti 200 lay just below at 4 percent; the Centre Party at 3 percent as noted, one percentage point ahead of the Greens.

Among respondents of "other nationalities," the Center Party as noted polled at 54 percent, followed by SDE at 17 percent, EKRE (8 percent) and Isamaa (6 percent).

Support for all other parties was below 5 percent within this demographic.

Center continues to reign in the capital, however, regaining its top spot with a 28 percent rating in March, followed by its coalition partner in Tallinn, SDE (on 19 percent).

That Center bucks the trend in the largest city could be put down to both various high-profile projects, big and small, which the city government pursues, and also a sort of success-breeds-success attitude common among Russian-speaking people.

The Reform Party and Isamaa were even-stevens in Tallinn, at 16 percent according to Kantar; EKRE polled at 11 percent.

Perhaps providing support for the old adage that you get more right-wing as you get older, within the two youngest two respondent age-groups (18-24 and 25-34), SDE was the most popular party in March; Isamaa led the pack among all other age groups.

Kantar Emor conducted the above research on behalf of ERR, covering the period March 14 to 20, and polled a total of 1,567 voting-age citizens aged 18+ responding.

One-third of respondents were interviewed by phone, two-thirds online. The maximum claimed margin of error is +/- 2 percent.

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