Prime Minister Kaja Kallas (Reform) said the flash estimate published on Thursday brings some optimism.

"The important thing is that it is at the same level as it was in the fourth quarter of last year. What that says is that the bottom is here. This full-year deficit is essentially inertia, once you're at the bottom, you can only go up from here," she said.

Bank analysts are also cautiously testing the waters.

"Other economic indicators have been showing for some time that this is the bottom. Industrial production has shown growth in three of the last four months, retail trade at least has not seen a major decline, and is moving sideways. It seems that the period of recession has come to an end, but it remains to be seen what will happen next – it is difficult to predict rapid growth this year, at least today," SEB Economic Analyst Mihkel Nestor told "Aktuaalne kaamera".

Bank of Estonia Economist Kaspar Oja said: "The big falls in most economic indicators were a year or two ago. One would think that the major downturn is at least over. Forecasts also suggest that the second half of the year could see the start of a recovery. But for the year as a whole, we should still see a downturn this year, simply because a large part of the downturn occurred at the end of last year."

He said both the statistical indicators and communication with entrepreneurs give reasons for cautious optimism.

"If you look at the recent statistics, you can see that those activities that have been affected by the fall in competitiveness in recent years, due to rapid price changes, have started to recover to some extent. Talking to entrepreneurs, it seems that new contracts have been signed here and there, so this could start to show up positively in the statistics," Oja explained.

Ahti Talts, head of metal industrial company Radius Machining in Harju County, was modest when speaking about new orders.

"The order intake is rather flat when compared to the last quarter of 2023. There are about five weeks of work ahead, which could be better based on our past statistics, maybe up to eight weeks. Our customer base has not shown the kind of uptick that would warrant a change in budget. Rather, we expect growth after the summer holidays, in September," Talts told AK.

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