The research "New Belarusian Diaspora in Estonia during the War in Ukraine (February 2022-May 2024)" was carried out by Belarusian researcher Andrey Ezerin, whose work focuses on urban solidarity processes.

The so-called "new wave" (NW) is defined as the youngest and most progressive part of the Belarusian community in Estonia, Ezerin told ERR News.

"In the second half of the noughties of the current century, the trend of the formation of the new wave of Belarusians was just being defined, in the tenths it became obvious, and, finally, the most active period falls on the revolutionary for Belarus events of 2020-2021," he said.

"One of the characteristic features of this part of the Belarusian community in Estonia is a high percentage of representatives of the creative class and, above all, IT specialists, which was the result of Estonia's migration policy towards Belarusians in the last 12 years."

ERR News: Please, explain the aim of your study and how it was carried out.

Andrey Ezerin: The goal of the project is to capture the state of the new wave of the Belarusian diaspora in Estonia from 2022 to 2024, against the backdrop of the ongoing war in Ukraine. The research methodology was hybrid, with the predominant use of qualitative methods:

● Interviews with experts who belong to the Belarusian diaspora, have been living permanently in Estonia for the past few years and are actively involved in public life.

● An online survey on the Google Forms platform. The questionnaire, prepared in Belarusian, was answered by 103 representatives of the NW.

● Focus groups were interviewed online (7 persons, all NW representatives) and offline (8 persons: diaspora activists, opinion leaders). An additional online interview was conducted with three more people (mixed group).

● Monitoring of the Estonian media (from March 2022 to March 2024), as well as Belarusian media.

The research was made possible thanks to the financial support of ESTDEV for the "Association of Belarusian Organizations in Estonia."

Why did you want to do this research and why is it important that we understand this group?

One of the main goals of our research is to promote a constructive and sustainable dialogue between the Belarusian diaspora and local, state and legislative structures of Estonia, civil society organizations and Estonian society in general.

Such an open conversation requires, first of all, an objective picture of the state of the diaspora, an understanding of the extent to which its participants are loyal to the European system of values, how actively they integrate into Estonian society and what, perhaps, hinders this process.

The revolutionary events of 2020 in Belarus sparked a rise in civic awareness within Belarusian diasporas in EU countries, including Estonia, among audiences that had previously been relatively politically neutral. This primarily refers to representatives of generations Y and partially X. With the start of the war in Ukraine, the Belarusian discourse in the Estonian media gradually diminished. The status of "incredible" that Belarusians gained in 2020 lost its relevance for Estonian society. This was primarily influenced by Lukashenko's support of Russia's aggression against Ukraine. For objective reasons (lack of a common border and historical context), Estonians know little about Belarusians, Belarus, and the events of 2020. 

The results of the study are important for both the Belarusian and Estonian sides. Estonia is currently experiencing a rather active inflow of migrants, people from all over the world are coming here. This is a challenge that requires new approaches and tools. Our materials, I am sure, help Estonian society to effectively address these challenges. 

At the same time, the study is a tool to counter fakes and disinformation. Belarusians are presented as the fifth column of the Russian world, Lukashenka's accomplices. The results tell a different story, the new wave stands on democratic positions and is committed to European values. 

How many Belarusians live in Estonia? What is the new wave?

According to Statistics Estonia, as of January 1, 2023, there were 11,562 inhabitants of the country who designated their nationality as Belarusan/Belarusian, holding third place among the Estonian diasporas after Russians and Ukrainians. 

As for the "new wave," we can designate its number conditionally according to some indirect data, it is about 3,000 people. The social portrait of a typical "NW" family, based on the results of the focus group interviews, is as follows:

"A couple around 30 years old with one child, both having higher education, with one or both partners working in IT. They are nationally oriented, came to Estonia intentionally, admire and respect the country, understand its democratic status are learning Estonian and seek better education for their children. They do not consider returning to Belarus as long as there is a dictatorial regime there."

What were your findings?

The online survey (the main part of research), in which more than 100 Belarusians of the new wave participated, was conducted in February-March 2024. The focus was on the information preferences of the audience, through the prism of which it is also possible to determine the values of the respondents.

A significant part of the survey participants (40.8 percent) have been living in Estonia since 2015, another 46.6 percent – since 2020.

Almost 40 percent of respondents answered "politics" when asked "What topic concerns you first and foremost?" Another 19.4 percent answered "international life", with "culture" (15 percent) rounding out the top three. Next came "business and entrepreneurship" and "economy" (7.8 percent each), followed by "hobbies and recreation" (5.8 percent) and "sports" (3.9 percent).

The audience reads/listens/watches news and favorite programs primarily in Russian (almost 77 percent), in Belarusian (63.1 percent), as well as in English (51.5 percent). At the same time, Estonian is used by 19.6 percent, almost every fifth person. It seems to be a low indicator, but let's not forget that almost half of the respondents came to Estonia after 2020 and are in the stage of learning Estonian.

It should be noted that 55.3 percent relatively disagree, and 35.9 percent completely disagree with the statement "There is a lot of information about the life of Belarusians in Estonia, interesting events and heroes in Estonian mass media." Only 7.8 percent of respondents agreed with this statement.

The respondents are well aware of the danger of information aggression on the part of the Russian Federation, that is why when asked "How do you feel about the fact that with the beginning of the war in Ukraine the broadcasting of Russian TV channels and the functioning of some Internet resources was stopped in Estonia?" almost 70 percent perceived the restrictions positively, while 26.7 percent doubt the effectiveness of such actions, "because there are enough means to bypass them", and only 5 percent do not see these channels of information as a danger for the Estonian state.

Belarusians continue to actively follow the events inside Belarus, as well as the news of the Belarusian diaspora. The question "What aspects of the life of Belarusian diasporas in other countries can interest you?" received the following answers: "Cases on the protection of the interests of Belarusians" – 71.8 percent; "Integration of Belarusians into the society of the host country" – 61.2 percent. It is important to note that the absolute majority of respondents do not trust the state mass media of Belarus, while loyalty to the Belarusian democratic media is rather high, though with some reservations.

Experts note a positive trend in the interest in key components of the Belarusian cultural code. The significant role of public organizations with Belarusian roots in maintaining national identity is also noted.

Which results are worth paying special attention to?

Political turbulence in Europe has shaped a new wave of national revival in Estonia. The topic of the resilience of the national cultural code and its susceptibility to influence from the "Russian world" has become highly relevant again. According to experts and focus group participants, the increase in the number of Russian-speaking people is viewed by Estonians as a threat to their national cultural code, even if these individuals share same democratic values.

Another important aspect has been the heightened level of national security amid the threat of a potential Russian invasion of the Baltic countries. This increased security demand has also become stricter, impacting the NW Belarusians and the overall atmosphere in the country. Thus, with the start of the war in Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions against Belarusian citizens, the situation for the NW has become more complicated, marked primarily by uncertainty and instability. This is compounded by the high level of trauma experienced by Belarusians due to events in their homeland, particularly their concerns about safety.

All these circumstances have led to a decline in the confidence that the NW Belarusian migrants previously associated with Estonia. Compared to the previous study, the audience now harbors more doubts about the country's strategic future. However, for those who have lived in Estonia for more than five years and have managed to solve the basic problems of being a migrant, current events are prompting them to finally decide to choose Estonia as their permanent home.

Regarding the change in Estonians' attitudes towards Belarusians, the offline group of activists painted the most pessimistic picture: "Life has become more complicated, with more formal problems and pressure." In contrast, the NW representative group viewed the situation more optimistically. They felt that the attitude of "ordinary Estonians" towards Belarusians had hardly changed. While some episodes were mentioned that caused negative emotions, most respondents believe that, on a day-to-day level, everything remains as it was before.

It was noted that Estonian politicians do not differentiate between Belarusians and Russians.  For instance, a representative of the Reform Party suggested that Belarusian citizens, along with Russians living in Estonia, should pay a military tax.

At the same time, one expert pointed out that Estonian politicians are more constructive than, for example, Lithuanian politicians, who use the "Belarusian issue" in political games.

Nearly all respondents mentioned a series of conferences initiated by the Estonian side as important for the Belarusian diaspora.

Does it show that Belarusians are well integrated into Estonia?

Integration into a new country is a complex process. It requires a long and arduous journey to master the language, and to embrace the culture and values of another people. However, I can already say with certainty what unites most Estonians and the new wave of Belarusians. Research results confirm that the new wave of Belarusians came to Estonia consciously, understanding the democratic status of the country. Thus, European values are the foundation on which our interaction is already developing. This is very important, considering the current political context.

The Belarusians of the new wave are quite deeply immersed in the information context of Estonia. More than half of the respondents to the question "How often do you read/watch/listen to Estonian media?" answered "daily", almost a quarter – "weekly" and 16.5 percent do it monthly.

But, unfortunately, the war has nullified many achievements and we need to start solving some of the issues again. It is necessary to interact, not to leave the Belarusians in isolation; for this, of course, there should be the will of politicians, public figures and the Belarusian community itself, of course.

The Belarusian diaspora should overcome internal problems, for example, the division into the "old" and "new" waves, which practically do not contact each other.  An important problem is also the lack of a common strategy with the Estonian side, other Estonian national diasporas and the absence of an all-Belarusian diaspora strategy.

Will the results help Estonians trust Belarusians? Or change their opinions?

Research is like a book in a library. If no one reads it, it is of little use. Therefore, it is important for us now to communicate the results of our work to the beneficiaries. On the Estonian side, these are the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Ministry of Culture, the Integration Foundation, parliamentary structures and local self-government bodies, first of all, the mayor's offices of Tallinn, Tartu, Pärnu, Narva, cities where Belarusians are the most numerous.

It is also important for us to convey our point of view to Estonian civil society; cooperation between Belarusian non-profit organizations and Estonian NGOs is among the recommendations we propose.  

What will you do with the data now? Will there be more studies?

The research continues the analytical cycle "The New Belarusian Diaspora in Estonia: Possibilities of Interaction with Estonian Society," which began in the second half of 2022.

In the first part of the study, considerable attention was paid to the role and processes of formation of the so-called "new wave," which became the engine of the events of 2020-2021 in Estonia and, in fact, defined a new period in the history of the Belarusian diaspora.

It was at this moment that the Belarusian community became especially noticeable in the Estonian information space for a certain period of time, thanks, first of all, to the manifestation of a civic position, emphasis on adherence to democratic values, and vivid public actions. The NW has declared itself as an organized community committed to European democratic values.

Of course, we think about the continuation of our cycle and hope to finally hear what Estonians themselves think about Belarusians, about migrants, about opportunities for integration of foreigners. But first of all, it is important for us to understand what answer Estonians will give to the question "Does Estonia need Belarusians?"

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