Speaking to ERR, Saks said: "The Ukrainian strike in the Kursk region has been successful mainly due to the fact that the Russian military command and political leadership were completely unprepared for this kind of event."

"It seems they still don't fully grasp the scale of the situation or Ukraine's intentions. This also amplifies the impact significantly," Saks went on.

While Kursk is not a strategically significant area in Russia and holds little importance militarily, it is significant in a political sense, and creates a psychological impact, according to Saks.

"This brings Ukrainians a considerable advantage over Russia," the expert said.

Its main aim is to draw Russian forces away from the Donbas front and towards Kursk, Saks added, thus taking the pressure off the eastern front for the Ukrainians.

"Since the Ukrainians have undertaken an incursion into Russian territory, this forces Russia to respond by concentrating more troops there," he went on.

Saks speculated that Ukraine would have prepared reserves against the background of committing its forces to the incursion, though to what extent is unknown.

He said: "There has been ongoing talk about the challenges they face in forming mobilization units. And now they suddenly have a large force with which to launch a strike, in an unexpected direction."

Saks also said that Ukraine's success has been partly due to its weaponry. "It appears that these brigades are equipped with armored vehicles and other weapons as supplied by the western nations," he added.

 As for Russia's reserve capabilities, Saks noted that these are hardly a bottomless pit.

"While the assumption has been that Russia holds substantial reserves, we are now seeing that, five days into the assault, Russia has been unable to deploy combat-ready and well-equipped troops to the area," Saks said.

Saks also explained that Ukraine's air force had been preparing the ground for the strike for several months already, targeting and destroying much of Russia's stationary military infrastructure in the Kursk region. "For some reason, Russia ignored these preparations, which points to a complete failure in planning from their side," he said.

He further outlined that Russian side lacks the personnel and defensive positions needed to check the Ukrainian advance.

Russia's air force is also struggling, as they now need to bomb their own territory in order to push back the Ukrainians, Saks added.

So far the Russian army's offensive tactics have typically involved bombarding Ukrainian towns and villages along the front line, Saks added, on which Ukrainians have also established defensive positions. "It's hard to imagine Russia doing the same to its own villages on its own territory. This presents a serious challenge for Russia," he said.

Risks associated with the Kursk offensive

The assault on Kursk also brings with it risks, according to Saks, such as a potential meltdown on the part of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, and the possibility of widespread mobilization across Russia.

"At present we can see that the Russian president is completely disoriented," Saks said, likening Putin's current behavior to his response during early failures in the war, and during last summer's rebellion led by Yevgeny Prigozhin.

The autocratic Putin's confidence has diminished, and so he is shifting the blame on to others whereas he would retain the credit of all successes to himself.

"This is a very opportune moment for the Ukrainians to cultivate their success and to put Russia under pressure," Saks added.

What are Ukraine's next moves?

Saks said he was skeptical over speculation in the Russian media that the main Ukrainian thrust could occur elsewhere than in the Kursk region.

"I don't believe there will be a large-scale offensive anywhere else, but everything happening at the moment has significantly tipped the strategic situation, much more in Ukraine's favor than before."

The expert suggested that the Ukrainians may have slowed down their advance, to allow Russian civilians time to leave, as they do not want to bring Russian civilians under their control.

It is difficult to forecast Ukraine's next steps. According to Saks, there is not yet adequate information on whether the operation in Kursk involved larger forces than before, or if the Ukrainians intend to establish permanent positions there.

He said: "If the Ukrainians want to stay in Kursk longer, they will need to create serious defensive positions and establish proper logistics."

Saks also said the Ukrainians are unlikely to push deep into Russian territory.

"It would be more rational to take a larger chunk of border areas under their control, which would prove much more challenging for the Russian forces to repel. However, we shall see; those forces which have crossed the Russia-Ukraine border are not yet large enough to seize a vast area, and hold it for a year or two," Saks concluded.

Rainer Saks is a former foreign ministry secretary general and ran for the Parempoolsed party in June's European elections. He was talking to "Aktuaalne kaamera

The BBC reports Ukrainian troops are continuing their offensive in Russia's western Kursk region, as their surprise cross-border attack enters its fifth day, while Russian authorities claim they are "continuing to repel" the attack.

While events are developing and Ukraine's long-range aims are not yet clear, it has been significant that there have been no western objections to the incursion into Russian Federation territory – even using western-made materiel such as the M1 Abrams tank.

The strike may be location-neutral, ie. its intent is key rather than where it happened, though that said a salient has developed which is both harder for Russia to counter and from which further incursions could come from different directions.

Additionally, Russia's defenses, as with Ukraine's were necessarily set back some distance from the border line, but the area of territory under Ukrainian control now, around 625 square kilometers, is over three times Russia's gains made in July, for instance.

Russia, seemingly taken on the hop, now has the dilemma of taking troops from the Donbas front thus weakening, or deploying conscripts and calling for greater mobilization, which could have a societal impact.

The incursion also needs to be seen in the light of Ukraine's ongoing drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and the smaller Belgorod incursion deploying Russian rebels, in May 2023.

Ukraine may also be looking to ensure no more attacks in the north and on Kharkiv, or even a tit-for-tat nuclear power station swap (Russia has occupied the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station since early on in the war; Kursk is home to a nuclear power station of the same name).

An interactive map of the Ukraine front updated in real time is here.

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