Estonia's security experts voice concerns over Germany aid to Ukraine rumors
Recent media reports suggesting that Germany may not maintain at its current level its military aid to Ukraine are a cause for concern, defense experts told ERR.
Security Rainer Saks stressed the reports have not yet been officially confirmed.
"I honestly can't as of now understand if this is really a decision. It seems more like a rumor that which began in the German media. The German government itself hasn't directly commented on this. I haven't noticed anything, at least," Saks told ERR on Monday.
Marko Mihkelson (Reform), chair of the Riigikogu's Foreign Affairs Committee, told Vikerraadio's "Uudis+" program:
"The worst news we've heard in recent days indicates that Germany, which has undoubtedly been the largest provider of aid after the U.S., has announced that due to budgetary problems it will not be able to allocate any new funds for additional deliveries or aid shipments to Ukraine. This message is, of course, extremely concerning."
Saks highlighted that Germany has nonetheless committed to delivering a significant aid package to Ukraine by the end of this year, to include several hundred armored vehicles, up to two Iris-T air defense systems, and other weapons and equipment.
For that reason it was not clear if the media reports refer to that aid, or subsequent, not yet decided upon aid.
Mihkelson meanwhile said that the media reports have been confirmed to him by a colleague from the Reichstag.
Eesti 200 MP and Mihkelson's counterpart at the Riigikog's National Defense Committee Kalev Stoicescu also expressed regret over the reports, adding current information suggests that existing agreements remain in place, while potential cuts will affect additional military aid.
Marko Mihkelson also expressed broader concerns about the actions of some Western nations in response to Russia's aggression in Ukraine, noting that energy is still being bought from Russia, while unequivocal statements on the situation having to be resolved with a Russian defeat have been lacking, he said.
Depending on what happens at November's U.S. presidential election, there may be a move away from non-refundable aid to more support via long-term loans on the part of the West, Mihkelson added.
"At the moment, the political will to make such ambitious decisions is not as strong as we and the Ukrainians would like," Mihkelson concluded.
Rainer Saks meanwhile said that while "everything is driven by domestic politics," it is not clear why Germany would suddenly change course, having been in the front rank of aid to Ukraine over the past two-and-a-half years.
Support for Ukraine has cut across German political party lines, he added.
Stoicescu noted that since it is unclear which specific German military aid Ukraine might lose out on, it is hard to comment on its impact on the conflict.
He did say that he does not believe the decision is a reaction to Ukraine's ongoing incursion into Russia's Kursk oblast, nor is it driven by a general fear of escalation in the West, but rather the result of concerns about public finances and budget balance. "Just as we in Estonia need to make cuts, Germany is also seeking ways to do that," Stoicescu noted.
Meanwhile the defense committee's deputy chair, Leo Kunnas (EKRE), also expressed concern.
"European countries must also contribute to supporting Ukraine; this cannot be left solely to the U.S.," Kunnas said.
The green transition should not come at the expense of aid to Ukraine, he added.
"I don't see any resource limitations for green transition activities, so why are there limitations when it comes to security issues?" Kunnas, a reservist officer, added.
Saks said that while there are certainly lobbyists and politicians in Germany who would like to abandon Ukraine and resume cheap energy deals with Russia, these tend to be outliers,
There's a lot of noise in the media, but we don't have any solid source pointing to a definite political process—just rumors."
Another factor Saks noted is Russian attempts to divert Western public attention from Ukraine-related issues including the Kursk incursion, via various information manipulations, including seemingly contradictory information and even the specter of Russia being a nuclear power and deploying that capability.
A POLITICO article which published Saturday reported The German government is planning stop any new military aid to Ukraine, as a part of the coalition's austerity measures.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Mait Ots