Despite the successes, logistical challenges will likely force the Ukrainians to dig in soon, he added.

Väli said that at present it is difficult to assess how far the Ukrainian army has made an incursion into Russian territory.

Speaking to ETV show "Ukraina stuudio," Lt Col. Väli said: "The news from Kursk oblast is so confusing.

"Reports indicate that 11 settlements have been captured or that incursions have covered approximately 45 square kilometers."

"At the same time, a couple of days later, and there's talk of 250 square kilometers. What the Ukrainians actually have control of is a highly debated topic among war bloggers," Väli went on.

Väli stressed that even if a Ukrainian reconnaissance group has moved 45 kilometers northwards into Russian territory, this need not necessarily mean that the Ukrainians are fully in control of that area.

Väli said: "Now comes an interesting observation. If we speak generally, then the Ukrainians have been successful in surprising the Russian Federation already twice. Russia's armed forces have not been able to counter these movementss. Meanwhile, the Russian offensive in Donetsk is still in progress."

"The principal strike remains directed toward Donetsk, specifically towards Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk. The Russians still have 17 kilometers to go to reach the latter. By comparison, Ukraine has achieved in Kursk within the first few days what the Russians have taken half a year to accomplish in Donetsk, were they have advance just 500 meters a day," Väli continued.

"For the Ukrainians such a raiding tactic is not unfamiliar, and if we take a look at what has happened in the first half of this year, they have all the time been probing the northern border via their small raids," he added.

According to Väli, at the tactical level, the Ukrainians have a clear goal of tying down Russian forces and causing them significant issues.

"This they have achieved superbly at the tactical level, and also at the operational and strategic levels. The psychological effect, which has been achieved, is that Ukrainian morale has risen, while the Russian Federation is completely befuddled," Väli stated.

"All of this suggests that in terms of command, coordination, and the element of surprise, the Ukrainians are far superior to the Russians, at least in the direction of Kursk," he went on.

"The preparation, which was done, was so good that HIMARS strikes neutralized depots of [Russian National Guard] Rosgvardia and the Ministry of Internal Affairs in the opening days," Väli noted.

"Additionally, that which the Russian Federation always leans on on, in other words an electronic countermeasures, were also neutralized. My assessment is that the Russians are now in complete chaos when it comes to command there. They are now trying to concentrate whatever they can there," he continued.

Väli suggested that Ukraine's goal might be to divert Russian pressure away from Donetsk Oblast.

According to Väli, one battalion has already been redeployed, but moving units around takes a considerable amount of time, he added. "This allows the Ukrainians to showcase that with Western materiel and the Western doctrine they are capable of achieving significant success."

Väli said he skeptical that the Ukrainians' goal could b to capture the Kursk nuclear power plant, for example.

"If the front extends too far, it means you have to start moving your artillery units into enemy territory, which is very bad as there are more eyes and ears there, making it harder to control. You need to establish a logistical base. I think the Ukrainians might eve be surprised by their own bold move. I hope they also have corresponding plans," Väli said.

"I do hope that politicians do not interfere with the military's operations and do not set tasks which are impossible to attain. Maintaining the pace of operations at all times is not viable; at some point, logistical lines will not be able to support the operation, and in a case like that it will prove necessary to dig in. I would observe closely where the Ukrainians dig in, as this will be the area they intend to hold," Väli concluded.

Lt Col. Toomas Väli was talking to "Ukraina stuuio" presented by Reimo Sildvee.

While at least one Russian propaganda site has boasted of the Kursk offensive as requiring a "tedious mopping up operation" to deal with, that propaganda machine seems to have been caught on the hop by events.

However, developments are ongoing and mired in offensive and defensive complexities amid the fog of war.

What seems certain is there has been a defensive failure on the part of Russia, and that Russian intelligence failed; some estimates put the pocket Ukraine has taken at around 40 miles (around 64 kilometers) wide by 20 miles (c. 32 kilometers) deep, and around 100,000 Russian civilians have been evacuated.

Several strong, experienced and well-armed Ukrainian brigades and other units are involved including the 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade, and lessons are likely to have been learned from the 2023 offensive, which revealed underlying weaknesses in Ukrain'e ability to engage in complex, large multi-arms offensives at that point in time.

For Russia, the response seems a combination of the response to the Ukrainian offensive towards Kharkiv nearly two years ago, which liberated the city, and to the initial, failed assault on Kyiv, at the start of the war.

Not only Ukraine but also Russia face personnel issues in relation to redeploying from the eastern front, the use of conscripts and the specter of another mobilization, but the political cost may be easier for Ukraine to bear than Russia, whose economic and business elites may get more restless about the ongoing cost of the war and the damage to Russia's economy.

As with the aftermath of the Prigozhin/Wagner Group rebellion last year, heads may well roll when the dust has settled, with speculation having it that Russia's pursed-lipped Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov may potentially be out of a job soon.

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