The government crisis that had been simmering for the past few weeks escalated with the expulsion of the Social Democrats from the coalition. However, looking back at the past five years — which have included the COVID-19 crisis, the start of the war in Ukraine and a prolonged economic downturn — this turn of events was predictable and, given our political culture, hardly surprising.

It all started with approval ratings and the declining popularity of the coalition parties among the public. At the same time, we know that ratings are a reflection of past actions — meaning we either did something wrong or failed to adequately explain the necessity of our decisions. In a democratic country, the voters — that is, the people — are never wrong.

Background of anxiety and hopelessness

We must not forget the era we are living in. Only the elderly have experienced times more difficult than the present, both in Europe and globally. Military conflicts and crises have created a situation that, on one hand, demands stable leadership but, on the other, makes achieving it extremely difficult.

A full-scale war in Ukraine, widespread polarization, growing economic and regional inequality and economic decline are just a few of the key issues that have shaped both the media landscape and, more importantly, the public's mindset in recent years.

In times like these, society needs strong leaders and actions that foster a sense of unity. Everyone can judge for themselves how well we are currently doing in these two areas.

Many decisions have been made in recent years, but at the same time, numerous initiatives have stalled. It is no secret that coalition governments require many compromises and concessions. Following the 2023 parliamentary elections, one party (Reform Party — ed.) holds more than 37 seats in the Riigikogu, while all others have significantly fewer.

Rating as judgment for decisions and behavior

Over the past few tense days, I have been following politicians' statements, and looking ahead, I am concerned that there seems to be little willingness for self-reflection. Those in power are well aware of everything their partners did wrong and how incompetent they supposedly were in implementing certain policies. The Social Democrats are not blameless in this either. Perhaps I have not looked hard enough, but I have yet to see anyone acknowledge their own share of responsibility for what has been done. When self-criticism and the ability to listen disappear, nothing good can be expected.

The Social Democrats must also admit that while some decisions may have been made with noble intentions, their implementation and outcomes did not reflect that. Here are a few examples that contributed to the government's poor standing and weak approval ratings.

Regarding the car tax, we should have pushed harder for exemptions and remained steadfast in ensuring a much greater gap between taxes on affordable and middle-class vehicles versus luxury cars. We clearly underestimated both the practical and emotional impact of the car tax on Estonians, particularly in rural areas.

The same applies to land tax limits. Sharp increases are not justified. While alternative solutions were discussed within the government, they were not agreed upon by consensus.

On energy policy, we failed to effectively explain the benefits and necessity of ongoing renewable energy projects for Estonia. The result was an unacceptable level of confusion surrounding the data and potential costs.

Society expects cuts to ministries and state agencies — something that can certainly be done. However, so far, reductions have been concentrated outside of Harju County, affecting courts, vocational schools, high schools and the Tax and Customs Board, which has only deepened regional inequality and the sense of abandonment in other parts of Estonia. In other words, the state must not be further downsized in areas where the negative socioeconomic impact is already glaringly severe.

In general, tax changes have affected all segments of society. But we know that those hit the hardest were low-income individuals and pensioners. We failed to convince our coalition partners that growing inequality hinders Estonia's progress. At present, the wealthiest 10 percent of Estonians own nearly 60 percent of the country's assets.

I will use an analogy from Estonia's iconic sport, the decathlon: if you perform ten events either mediocrely or outright poorly, your total score will be embarrassingly low. In other words, if the decisions made are partly questionable or have not been adequately explained to the public, there is no escaping a dismal approval rating. Blaming each other leads nowhere. We must have the courage to admit that we made mistakes.

Balancer of a right-wing government

One of the Social Democrats' roles in the government was to act as a counterbalance to the right-wing parties. It is no secret that our focus was more on education, healthcare and the social system, as well as on regions beyond Tallinn.

The environment has also been a major priority for us. In essence, we followed the principle stated by Prime Minister Kristen Michal (Reform) in the fall of 2023: "The economy must fit within the limits of nature's tolerance." Unfortunately, he has since backed away from this stance.

All these areas will continue to be under our close scrutiny. Hopefully, the right-wing parties will find enough members among their ranks who consider, with every decision, that no one is left behind and no region is forgotten. In matters of national defense, we remain a steadfast partner and will support all necessary investments to ensure Estonia's security.

In the end, it was the Estonian people who lost the most from the government's collapse, and the stability of governance suffered as well. When only one in seven people supports the new government, it means that six out of seven feel abandoned. The Social Democrats will draw their conclusions, analyze the mistakes made and continue as a strong force in the Riigikogu, standing up for the people of Estonia.

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