For years, the Reform Party has enjoyed a reputation as a party well-versed in economic matters. In recent years, however, it is precisely the new generation of Reform Party politicians who have led our country into the deepest economic downturn in Europe.

At first, the worsening economic climate was justified by the war in Ukraine, but this argument could not be sustained indefinitely, as the economies of our neighboring countries continued to grow under the same conditions. Now, the Reform Party is trying to shift the blame for all its failed decisions onto the Social Democrats.

Democracy in crisis next to economy

The truth, however, is that a significant portion of the decisions harming our businesses and people's livelihoods have come from the Reform Party-led Ministry of Climate and Ministry of Finance.

As for the measures now being promoted as steps to restore the economy, the only ones making headlines are a few adjustments in the upcoming tax package. The policies already in effect will not be changed, and even the planned tax burden increases will only be partially mitigated. In other words, the supposed success story boils down to this: in the future, things will get slightly less bad than originally planned.

Despite occasional soloing, Eesti 200 and the Social Democrats have largely implemented the Reform Party's policies without question. Now, Eesti 200 are doing it alone and the results are not shaping up to be all that different. After all, Eesti 200 had already declared before the Riigikogu elections that its mission was to remove obstacles to the Reform Party's agenda. Effectively, Estonia is operating under one-party rule.

What's more, Social Democratic Party (SDE) chair Lauri Läänemets outright stated that the decision to break up the ruling coalition was made jointly by Kristen Michal and State Secretary Keit Kasemets. The fact that the state secretary is determining the fate of the ruling coalition only confirms what the Center Party warned about months ago: the Reform Party has blatantly politicized this high-ranking position. The Social Democrats' outrage over this is unnecessary, as they themselves signed off on the legal amendment that allowed the Reform Party's political ally to take on this role.

With elections approaching, the governing parties are primarily focused on campaigning, and for now, the coalition, which survives on a razor-thin majority of 52 votes, may hold together. However, after the elections, the Reform Party will need a new and longer-term plan. It is quite likely that this plan involves Isamaa. The prime minister's remark that Isamaa is welcome at coalition talks didn't come out of nowhere. Moreover, we don't even know whether Eesti 200 will still exist in its current form after the elections.

New coalition's rating just 16 percent

Isamaa is currently riding a wave of popularity, much of which comes from voters who have become disillusioned with the Reform Party. This makes a coalition with Reform a highly risky move for them.

In Tallinn, they can manage a coalition with the Reform Party by staging public disputes between their two deputy mayors on newspaper pages. However, joining a Reform Party-led government at the national level is something many voters would not forgive so easily. Of course, Isamaa certainly has ambitions to gain power in the state government, but they are unlikely to take such a risk before the local elections.

It is likely, however, that after the elections, Isamaa will negotiate some symbolic concession from the Reform Party — perhaps a reduction in one component of the car tax, which could be spun as a political victory — and use that as justification for entering a coalition with them.

The Reform Party's deceptive election campaign secured them not just the opportunity but also the obligation to govern the country for four years. While they seem to be struggling with this task, there is unfortunately no real way for them to pass on this responsibility. The list of external factors they can blame for their failures has also grown quite thin. This is reflected in the new ruling coalition's plummeting support, which has shrunk to just 16 percent — hardly a position that makes governing any easier than before.

Ironically, the snap elections proposed by the Center Party might now be the fastest way for the Reform Party to step back, regroup and slowly start rebuilding its support from the opposition bench.

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