The three-way coalition of the Reform Party, Social Democratic Party (SDE) and Eesti 200 started wobbling visibly two weeks ago when recent proposals to add new regulations coming from SDE-run ministries drew the ire of Prime Minister Kristen Michal (Reform). The premier particularly criticized the Ministry of Regional Affairs and Agriculture's plan to introduce additional restrictions on food donation.

"When we formed the government, there was an agreement — simpler, faster, less bureaucracy, a leaner, more austere state. A new idea every month, with new taxes and new requirements, that's not the way we're going. Something has to change," Michal said, referring to SDE.

From there, the Reform Party and junior partner Eesti 200 grew increasingly critical of the Social Democrats.

Michal said on March 7 that while in government, the Social Democratic Party (SDE) have engaged in slowing down processes and introducing incomprehensible initiatives. The PM added that Reform would theoretically be prepared to continue governing as a two-party coalition with Eesti 200 if SDE were not prepared to change their approach.

The PM added he plans to start discussing the concerns regarding cooperation with SDE on Monday, March 10. "We will certainly try to discuss whether we can resolve this and move forward together. If not, it is theoretically possible that just the two parties will go ahead," he said at the time.

SDE leader Lauri Läänemets slammed his coalition partners' actions as "short-sighted" and "cynical" on March 8, writing in a declaration that coalition parties should not allow themselves to be swayed by ratings.

The Social Democrats, representatives of opposition parties and some political analysts suggested already at the time that the government change was motivated primarily by the low ratings of both Reform and Eesti 200 and came as an attempt to blame the Social Democrats for the government's failures and modest popularity.

The Reform Party holds a comfortable 37 seats in the parliament and can likely count on the votes of a few independents to boot, while Reform and Eesti 200 have 52 votes between them in the 101-member Riigikogu.

Reform's support rating has suffered in the wake of growing dissatisfaction in society and the press over tax hikes during a recession, the inability to meaningfully curb government sector spending while still allocating tens of millions for projects and initiatives often deemed superfluous and, more recently, having to cancel planned offshore wind investments of €2.6 billion over two decades because the Reform-run Ministry of Climate failed to produce any watertight justification for such subsidies or how the project could realistically be expected to lower energy prices in the future.

Ahead of the Monday government council meeting where their fate was to be decided, SDE prepared three proposals: a €1 billion economic package, a review of pending tax changes and a more ambitious national defense plan.

The proposals were quickly shot down by Reform and Eesti 200 politicians, giving the impression that SDE's future had been decided ahead of the meeting.

SDE ousted

Following the Monday (March 10) morning coalition council meeting, Lauri Läänemets told reporters, when leaving Stenbock House, that the Social Democrats had been thrown out of the government, and that the reason he was given by his recent partners was the desire to pursue right-wing policy. He repeated his suspicion that the real reason was Reform's ailing rating.

Läänemets also pointed to Kristen Michal's long-time political ally, Estonia's new State Secretary Keit Kasemets as one of the architects of the change.

"The decision to remove the Social Democrats from the government was made by Kristen Michal and Keit Kasemets together. Eesti 200 said today that they made this decision about three weeks ago," Läänemets said.

Following the news, SDE's Riigikogu whip Madis Kallas threatened to sink an agreement in the Riigikogu that would see the right to vote of stateless persons taken away with a sunset clause, allowing them to still vote in the 2025 locals.

SDE have been against also stripping stateless persons of their right to vote in the past, and would, according to Kallas, vote against the amendment. The SDE politician said that SDE is prepared to strip the voting rights only from aggressor states' citizens come fall.

Politicians from the opposition Center Party and Isamaa rushed to criticize Reform and Eesti 200 for trying to blame unpopular decisions the coalition took jointly on the Social Democrats, with Isamaa head Urmas Reinsalu suggesting Kristen Michal should resign.

According to a recent survey, Reform polled at 11 percent, Eesti 200 at below 3 percent, compared with a rating of around 30 percent for Isamaa alone.

Kristen Michal and Eesti 200 deputy chair Margus Tsahkna gave a joint press conference on Monday where they said that the incoming two-partner coalition plans to eliminate the taxation of corporate profits, scrap personal income tax starting from the first euro, as well as cut the number of officials by 20 percent.

Michal said that the the government's goal now is to move further to the right on the political spectrum. Michal and Tsahkna criticized SDE for slowing down and obstructing processes in the government, including the matter of stripping local elections voting rights of non-citizens and amendments to the Competition Act, as well as coming up with new tax ideas and ways to add more red tape.

Michal confirmed that the plan is to draw up a new coalition agreement and noted that the duties of the ministers being dismissed will be taken over by interim officials in accordance with their lines of succession.

"When we draw up a new coalition agreement, that's where we will determine whether some ministerial positions will be merged or whether certain areas of responsibility will be shifted," the prime minister said. "Some changes in certain areas are likely."

Since then, Eesti 200 leader Kristina Kallas has suggested that the austerity could go as far as restructuring or even closing entire government agencies and institutions.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!