Ragnar Loova, CEO of meat processor Nõo Lihatööstus, told ERR that the price of beef, which began rising in the final quarter of last year, has now increased both for producers and in stores — not by a percentage point or two, but by several dozen percent.

"Beyond price increases, a more serious issue is the availability of beef. Availability is problematic; supply is currently unable to meet demand," Loova said.

According to Loova, the shortage is caused by more than just the foot-and-mouth disease recently discovered on German farms. Because the European Union functions as a single market, the presence of this disease — last seen in Europe in 1982 — certainly doesn't help stabilize the market and is also leaving its mark on prices.

Loova said prices could stabilize within a few months. Past experience has shown that when prices rise — especially for beef, which is already more expensive than average — demand tends to fall, helping to stabilize the market and eventually bring prices down. However, it's difficult to estimate how significant that drop might be.

Mariann Järvela, head of communications at supermarket chain Selver, told ERR that the beef crisis, which began at the end of last year, has only worsened in 2025. However, it's difficult to analyze consumer habits because some products are currently facing supply issues.

The most popular beef product at Selver is regular ground beef. According to Järvela, the price of this item has not been raised and demand remains high.

"Our top priority is ensuring the availability of regular ground beef for all consumers," the store representative said.

Producers are in no rush to change recipes due to the beef shortage. Loova noted that the past few years have shown that short-term changes in market structure — lasting one, two or even three months — do not justify making significant shifts, especially in product development and recipes.

Loova added that if it became clear prices would remain high in the long term, conclusions would need to be drawn and ideas developed on how to keep the price of certain products at a reasonable level for consumers. For now, however, such a development is not expected.

Price sensitivity of consumers keeping prices from rising

According to the head of Nõo Lihatööstus, meat producers are unable to raise product prices at the same pace as raw material costs are increasing.

"Even if we were to consider reviewing the prices of our products — especially those that contain a significant amount of beef — unfortunately, that's simply not possible at the moment," said Loova. "The consumer is extremely price-sensitive."

During the winter period, the meat producer lowered its average product prices by 4 percent to help consumers cope with rising taxes and general inflation, which has been driven by increases in input costs. According to Loova, it is clearly evident that the price hikes cannot be passed on to consumers. As a result, the burden largely falls on producers.

Still, Loova does not view the situation entirely pessimistically. He noted that difficult times also bring opportunities: companies must start thinking differently, increase automation, improve efficiency and reassess their cost structures.

The situation for Estonian producers is also influenced by competition from private-label products imported by retail chains.

"It's hard to blame consumers when, during tough times, they're faced with two options: choose a cheaper alternative or consume less. We've seen both trends grow recently," Loova said.

He added that another issue is the amount of retail space — Estonia has a very high amount per capita, which means fixed costs for store chains are also high, and that impacts pricing.

"In other words, the number of consumers hasn't increased over the years, but we're seeing fierce competition between retail chains, which inevitably leads to more retail space being added. In a way, the chains are in a situation where they have to make these investments just to survive. Unfortunately, from a pricing perspective, that doesn't benefit the consumer," said the head of Nõo Lihatööstus

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