Since the 2019 Riigikogu elections on March 3, the coalition Centre Party has lost support among Russian-speaking and older voters, allowing its junior coalition partner, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), to catch up with it in popularity, it appears from the results of a June survey commissioned by ERR and conducted by Turu-uuringute AS.
The opposition Reform Party remains the most popular party in Estonia. Following a successful European Parliament elections last month, support for Reform rose from 26 percent in May to 32 percent in June.
Support for Centre, meanwhile, fell by three percentage points on month to 19 percent. With that, support for Centre is now essentially equal with that of EKRE, which commanded the support of 18 percent of voters.
While support for EKRE has remained stable since the March 3 general election, however, Centre has seen a significant loss in support since then. Since the beginning of 2019, the loss in support has been even greater — according to the results of Turu-uuringute AS' January survey, support for the senior coalition party stood at 33 percent.
The Social Democratic Party (SDE) had the support of 11 percent of voters in June. The opposition party's support only increased by one percentage point since last month, which falls within the margin of error, but due to coalition Isamaa's decrease in support, the Social Democrats now lead the junior coalition party by 2 percent. Isamaa had the support of 9 percent of voters in June.
Support for nonparliamentary parties in June matched that seen in the Riigikogu elections: Estonia 200 had the support of 4 percent of voters, while the Estonian Greens, the Richness of Life Party and the Free Party the support of 1 percent of voters each.
The three-party coalition commanded the combined support of 46 percent of respondents, while the two parties in the opposition had the support of a combined 43 percent of respondents in June.
EKRE more popular among men, SDE among women
Compared to the results of surveys conducted ahead of the March 3 election, the Centre Party has lost support among non-Estonians, however support for the senior coalition party nonetheless remains significantly high among this demographic — 61 percent. Among Estonian respondents, meanwhile, Centre has the support of just 11 percent.
The most popular party among Estonians by a large margin is the Reform Party at 37 percent, followed by EKRE at 19 percent. The Social Democrats had a narrow lead on Centre with 12 percent support, while support for Isamaa trailed just behind at 10 percent in this demographic.
Among non-Estonians voters, Centre was followed in popularity by EKRE with 11, Reform with 7 and the SDE with 6 percent of the vote.
Support for EKRE was more than twice as high among men as among women, at 26 and 12 percent, respectively. On the other hand, the SDE was supported by twice as many women as men, at 15 and 7 percent, respectively.Teiste erakondade toetus on meeste ja naiste hulgas võrdsel tasemel.
Support for other parties was more equal along gender lines.
Centre loses commanding majority of elderly vote
By age, the Reform Party polled as the most popular party among all age groups below the age of 65, with the support of 44 percent of respondents aged 18-24, 35 percent of those aged 25-34, 31 percent of those aged 35-49, and 33 percent of those between the ages of 50-64.
Centre and Reform are equally popular among voters aged 75 or older, commanding the support of 32 percent of such voters each. In the 65-74 age group, Centre and EKRE are just about equally as popular, with the support of 23 and 22 percent of respondents, respectively. Thus, Centre has lost its commanding majority of the elderly vote.
Editor: Aili Vahtla