Wolf populations have almost doubled in Europe over the past decade. While their number was estimated at 11,000 in 2012, a recent count puts that figure north of 20,000.

Vivian Loonela, head of the Estonian Representation of the European Commission, described it as a success story of EU conservation efforts. But wolf numbers have now grown to a point where local governments have started to complain to the Commission.

"There have been attacks on livestock, conflicts with farmers and hunters," Loonela admitted.

A little under two years ago, the European Parliament urged Member States and the Commission to think about what should be done to protect livestock. Last December, a proposal was made to relax the conservation status of wolves.

"If currently, wolves are under strict protection as an international conservation status in the European Union, the new status would be protected," Loonela added.

Member States have not approved the proposal yet, and a conflict has developed between conservationists and farmers to which Estonia is no stranger, Aimar Rakko, hunting adviser for the Ministry of Climate, said.

"If we allow the populations to get very big, we will start seeing major damage. Wolf numbers have gone up quite a lot in recent years, which is immediately reflected in bigger losses. While wolves used to kill 600-700 sheep in Estonia annually, this nearly doubled to around 1,300 last year," Rakko said.

But Estonia has already lowered the conservation status of wolves to protected as an exception. This means that wolf numbers are being monitored and their conservation status is less strict than it is elsewhere in Europe. The beaver, gray seal and pine marten have a similar status in Estonia.

Currently, there is an ongoing legal case where the Environmental Board's establishment of wolf hunting quotas in 2020 is being contested. The dispute revolves around whether the condition of wolves in Estonia was sufficiently favorable. This dispute has reached the Supreme Court, Rakko noted.

In the first two court instances, it was determined that the status of the wolves was correctly assessed. The Supreme Court is now awaiting a preliminary ruling from the European Court of Justice on how to interpret the European Union directive.

"Should we consider this at the level of the Estonian population, or should we extend it to the Baltic population, or should we see how wolves are doing across Europe as a whole? If wolves are doing well in one area but poorly in another, should all the non-hunting requirements also apply to the small corner where the animal is thriving?"

The debate over wolf hunting gained momentum across Europe when, in 2022, a wolf killed European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's pony, Dolly. The fallen pony's story has become famous in the European press and has made the discussion even more political, acknowledged Stefano Braghiroli, associate professor of European studies at the Johan Skytte Institute of Political Studies of the University of Tartu.

"Some people may interpret it as the elite being able to bypass or shape the rules if they want something that's in their personal interest. Whereas our concerns, those of the ordinary people, are not as significant. Some voices count more," explained Braghiroli regarding the conflict's essence.

A permit has also been issued for the hunting of the specific wolf, GW950m, which killed the pony, but the wolf is still at large.

However, it's impossible to say whether von der Leyen's personal experience in any way influenced the Commission's enthusiasm for addressing the wolf issue, Braghiroli stated. Generally, the Commission bases its proposals on scientific studies, he added. This is also the case with wolves, emphasized Vivian Loonela.

"This is something that has been talked about for several years now. It does not seem to me to be a personal approach in any way. It's just how these Commission proposals are – they are based on science. Data has been collected and analyzed from across Europe, which formed the basis of the proposal."

The pony story is just an interesting anecdote, said Loonela. Yet, it is a piece of a broader dispute. Farmers have increasingly spoken out against the restrictions of the green transition. Ahead of the European Parliament elections, the dispute no longer concerns only wolves but the fundamental question of how much human activity should be limited in the name of preserving nature.

Nevertheless, the issue of wolf population control is definitely not a decisive theme for the elections, emphasized Braghiroli: "I wouldn't say that making the law more lenient on limiting wolf numbers would be decisive in ending farmers' protests."

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