Since the explosion of the Nord Stream gas pipelines in September 2022, Western countries have been increasingly vocal about protecting undersea infrastructure. Discussions gained momentum in October last year when the Hong Kong-flagged Newnew Polar Bear blew up an Estonian-Finnish gas pipeline and possibly also communication cables connecting Estonia and Finland as well as Estonia and Sweden. This Monday it was reported that communication cables connecting Germany and Finland as well as between Sweden and Lithuania had also been damaged

"The undersea infrastructure is so long and runs in such a way that it cannot be physically protected one hundred percent," said Erkki Koort.

However, according to Koort, a lot can be done to prevent attacks. "One preventive measure is to install sensors, as well as all kinds of acoustic devices. However, these will only alert you when an attack is actually being carried out," Koort said, adding that another crucial preventive measure is intelligence gathering. "And that certainly includes mapping the movements of ships. And not just once, but on an ongoing basis," Koort explained.

He pointed out that before attacking any form of infrastructure, the adversary usually gathers relevant information about the area where it is located. This can be done using both naval and civilian survey vessels. And if it becomes visible that there is a high amount of interest in the infrastructure at a certain point, the necessary deterrence measures can be focused in that area.

"In principle, you could say that any area can be attacked, but in reality, either due to the seabed or for logistical reasons, an area will be selected as the focus of an attack," said Koort.

Allied warships patrolled Baltic Sea during the summer 

Despite the seemingly impossible task, some efforts have already been made to physically protect the undersea infrastructure. In May this year, it was announced that NATO had set up a special unit to specifically protect submarine cables and pipelines.

The UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) began military operations in the Baltic Sea in December last year. At that time, 20 Allied warships, along with aircraft and helicopters, were sent to patrol the area.

In June this year, the Joint Expeditionary Force stepped up its capabilities in the region once more. In the framework of Operation NORDIC WARDEN, Allied air and naval forces patrolled the Baltic Sea for almost a month.

According to Erkki Koort, after the end of an operation, the situation was the same as beforehand and so it appeared to be more like an exercise.

"Of course, it cannot be ruled out that there was simply some kind of advance information about this at the time. Simply that the activation of the fleet was planned for that time and maybe that is why an attack was not carried out. But we don't know that, it's just speculation," Koort said.

Only 60 ships capable of repairing sea cables worldwide

As protecting undersea infrastructure is very complex, Koort said that much more thought needs to be given to how to respond to potential attacks. He noted that there are currently just 60 vessels worldwide that are able to repair underwater infrastructure.

"How quickly these specific vessels and their skilled crews arrive depends on what they are doing at the time. They don't sit idle," Koort said.

"Chances are they are constructing another line or doing maintenance at the same time. And in order for them to repair that damage, they're going to have to be taken away from somewhere else," Koort said.

The Estonian Ministry of Climate has instructed Elering to sign a contract this year to bring in a ship, if necessary, which would help repair the power cables between Estonia and Finland.

Kerli Zirk, crisis manager at the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications, said that communications companies providing vital services must outline both the potential risks and mitigation measures in their business continuity plans.

Zirk added that in the Baltic region, there are currently three companies able to repair underwater cables and infrastructure owners do have contracts with them. However, it is not only the lack of the suitable vessels that could prevent rapid repairs.

"If we think back to last year's communication cable incidents in October, the problem was that the weather at sea was just so bad," Zirk said. "But as far as we know, there is also a weatherproof vessel under construction in the area at the moment," she added.

Communication cables linking Estonia to the world provide surplus of coverage

Kerli Zirk also said that it is not possible to provide one hundred percent protection for undersea cables. At least as important as pre-contracting for repair work, Zirk says, in order that no communications company is dependent on a single external connection.

"We have eight maritime connections and five land connections," said Zirk. "We have also established that the actual amount needed to ensure communications for the end user is much smaller than the number of connections."

Zirk stressed that both companies and the state have roles to play in responding to critical infrastructure incidents. For example, the owner of the infrastructure can provide details about where exactly a particular communication cable has been damaged. This information can then be passed on to the navy as well as to investigative agencies.

"And if the navy notices any anomalies in terms of traffic near the cables at sea, they will also inform us as well as the infrastructure owners so that they can be extra vigilant in their control centers to create a clear picture of the situation," said Zirk.

Zirk confirmed that when it comes to this kind of information exchange, authorities and companies have made a big leap forward over the last year. "When we had incidents last year, it was not at all obvious that we would exchange this kind of information nor how quickly we would do it. But today we have agreed on it with all the parties involved, and I can say that it works very well," said Zirk.

---

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!