In February, three long years had passed since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The invasion began on a historically significant date for Estonia — February 24. On that day in 1918, Estonia seized a brief window of opportunity between retreating Russian forces and advancing German troops to declare itself an independent and free state.

Now, once again, we find ourselves at the mercy of great powers as they play their games of influence above our heads. While one of the key players has remained the same, the other has taken a more surprising turn. From the abrupt freezing of foreign aid (i.e., development and humanitarian aid), which has had an immediate and severe impact, to coercive "peace talks" and resource agreements — Trumpism's resurgence is pushing us, with unyielding persistence, toward the next crisis. A crisis of the rule of law and liberal democracy.

We are living through a period that the philosopher Antonio Gramsci — imprisoned in fascist Italy between the world wars — called an interregnum, a time of monsters. It is a period in which the old political order and institutions can no longer cope with new challenges, yet a new order has not yet taken shape. A time marked by uncertainty and the erosion of previously held values.

In this vacuum, it is the divisive figures who thrive — those who offer simplistic solutions to complex problems while ignoring systemic and structural issues. In other words, this is the age of autocrats and populists.

The US shift

The past month has made it abundantly clear that a Trumpist United States is actively disengaging from the alliances and global order it has long led. We have witnessed outright hostility and coercion toward long-standing friends and allies — including Canada, Ukraine, Denmark, Panama and Jordan — while seeing a forceful rapprochement with other autocracies, as well as direct interference in Europe's democratic processes.

From the statements made by Donald Trump, JD Vance and Elon Musk, it is evident that they seek to empower the same kind of anti-democratic forces in Europe that they themselves represent. This, of course, has long been a strategic goal of their new ally, Russia, but it is clear that the United States has significantly greater power and tools to bring about such a shift.

Sowing chaos appears to be one of the new administration's deliberate tactics. With Trump's return to power, all U.S.-funded humanitarian aid efforts worldwide were halted without prior warning — including life-saving aid programs in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan and other severely war-torn regions. While any new administration has the right to review previously funded programs, the manner in which this decision was carried out immediately raised the question of whether it was simply incompetence or outright cruelty.

Even though existing agreements could have been reviewed while humanitarian efforts continued, the decision was made to abruptly paralyze life-saving programs, leaving both aid recipients and implementing organizations in a state of uncertainty and insecurity — often in extremely dangerous conditions.

The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which oversees and funds development and humanitarian aid, was essentially dismantled. And while U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke of exemptions for life-saving humanitarian aid, there was no one left on the other end of the line to authorize them. Moreover, with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) taking over the payment system, even the remaining USAID employees were unable to transfer actual funding to aid organizations.

It is now clear that this was both incompetence and cruelty at the same time: on February 27, the originally announced 90-day funding pause became permanent. Approximately 10,000 contracts — around 90 percent of all foreign aid agreements, worth roughly $60 billion — were unilaterally terminated. Among them was the Estonian Refugee Council's ongoing life-saving humanitarian aid project in Ukraine's hardest-to-reach areas, as well as a long-term resilience program in Armenia for those who fled Nagorno-Karabakh.

The ones who will suffer the most from this decision are, first and foremost, the tens of millions of people in crisis zones around the world who rely on humanitarian aid for their daily survival and well-being. Whether it be food assistance to mitigate the risk of starvation, access to clean drinking water and emergency shelter, critical medical care or the demining of villages and farmlands, these essential services are now at risk.

Due to the U.S. funding cut, mobile health centers in Afghanistan, which served nine million people, have shut down. In northern Syria, dozens of clinics and hospitals have closed their doors. In Ethiopia, food assistance for about one million people at risk of starvation due to war has been halted. In Ukraine, roughly one million people will no longer receive cash-based aid, which is essential for purchasing basic necessities such as food and medicine.

These are merely fragments of the vast global scope of U.S.-funded humanitarian programs. Could there be a more striking illustration of the time of monsters than one of the world's wealthiest men taking food and medical aid away from the war-ravaged hungry and sick?

However, the consequences of the U.S.'s policy shift are not felt only in crisis zones. While outlandish ideas — such as turning Gaza into a luxury Riviera or forcibly relocating Palestinians, or even annexing Canada and Greenland — might initially seem like the delusions of a single man or an exercise in "alternative reality," these words and ideas have tangible consequences for our understanding of international law and justice. They erode our already fragile sense of security about the future — a future that is already teetering on the edge.

From shock to action

When confronted with authoritarian ambitions, indifference and self-isolation are the worst possible responses. Is this all happening far away and therefore does not affect us? Not only is that a delusion — it does affect us — but such an attitude primarily benefits the very autocrats in question, who tolerate no opposition and whose interests are served by the deafening silence of a passive majority.

Empty words and mere hope for a better future are of no use either. The changes taking place now are fundamental and will have long-term consequences. The faster Europe recovers from the shock of the transatlantic alliance's weakening and takes action, the better.

Europe must fill the emerging gaps as much as possible while remaining steadfast in the values on which the post-war European order was built: rejecting the use of aggression and force to alter borders, defending international law and agreements, and prioritizing multilateralism — that is, a foreign policy based on cooperation. But moving forward, Europe must act on the assumption that it can no longer rely on the United States.

In response to the U.S. shift, discussions on increasing defense spending are already taking place across Europe. However, Europe's response must go beyond just the defense sector. The U.S. was the world's largest humanitarian aid donor, covering nearly half (43 percent last year) of the funding required for humanitarian programs. Thanks to U.S. support, the most vulnerable people in the most devastating crisis zones — or living as refugees in neighboring countries — were able to sustain even a minimally dignified life.

Currently, there are around 60 armed conflicts worldwide and over 300 million people in need of humanitarian aid. The life-saving and essential relief programs carried out in these crisis zones by various humanitarian organizations — both large and small — must continue.

Understandably, many European countries are already cutting budgets and directing funds primarily toward security, but this cannot come at the expense of foreign aid, as has recently been the case with the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Germany. That is a short-sighted approach. Providing assistance to those most in need — whether due to war or natural disasters — is not only a morally right and compassionate act; it also helps safeguard our own stability and security.

Here are some concrete examples. Food, clean drinking water, shelter and medical aid are basic necessities. Their absence fuels both internal and cross-border forced migration, as families affected by crises seek safer and more livable conditions. Political instability, extreme deprivation and a sense of hopelessness about the future make people more susceptible to radical ideologies and criminal networks — whose influence can extend far beyond national borders.

Ensuring the basic needs of people affected by crises — along with providing initial mental health support and access to education — contributes to the stabilization of crisis-stricken countries and those hosting refugees, helping to preserve or restore peace across entire regions.

Medical aid programs help limit the spread of infectious diseases such as polio, cholera and monkeypox in many parts of the world — diseases that could otherwise escalate into global health threats. In other words, by alleviating suffering elsewhere, we also safeguard our own security and well-being.

Given the constraints on available resources, we must prioritize humanitarian aid above all other foreign aid programs, temporarily pausing infrastructure projects and other initiatives from the same budget that are not life-saving or of immediate impact. Now, with nearly half of global humanitarian aid funding having disappeared, the focus must shift decisively toward ensuring life-saving assistance.

Despite the loss of U.S. funding, the Estonian Refugee Council's humanitarian aid efforts in Ukraine and beyond continue — though unfortunately at a reduced scale. Our needs-based assistance in Ukraine primarily reaches people in the Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, where attacks on civilians and infrastructure occur daily and the ongoing demand for humanitarian aid is undeniable. With financial support from the European Union, the United Nations, the Estonian government and individual donors, we are present at key locations such as the Dnipro transit center, where we are on the front lines receiving evacuees.

The campaign "Three Years Too Many" is raising funds to support Ukrainians affected by the war, but effective and widespread humanitarian aid cannot rely on donations alone. It is time for both the Estonian government and the European Union to increase humanitarian funding in order to fill the gap that has emerged.

I agree with Jonatan Vseviov: talking about alarm bells ringing is pointless — this alarm has been blaring beside our bed for years, yet few have truly woken up. The monster does not sleep and neither should we.

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