The Transport Administration has completed a strategic analysis of national road maintenance funding needs for the years 2025-2054, which will serve as a basis for drawing up long-term expenditures on the country's national roads.

The analysis found that maintaining Estonia's national roads at an optimal level would require doubling the current budget.

Last year, the Transport Administration spent €93 million on road network maintenance and upkeep, while the state budget strategy provides for €107 million in funding for this year. In the years ahead, this amount is expected to grow, reaching €141 million by 2027.

The analysis, however, found that this is not enough, and outlined multiple scenarios depending on the level of roads spending.

If the state were to allocate an average of €218 million a year from this year through the year 2054, it would be possible to maintain all of the country's roads in good condition, and the overall state of Estonia's road network would improve. Under this optimistic budget scenario, there would also be no backlog in road maintenance.

National road maintenance includes upkeep, the preservation repairs of gravel roads, the surface dressing of paved roads, restorative maintenance, reconstruction as well as bridge repairs.

Under an optimal budget scenario, with an average annual budget of €203 million, the state would be able to maintain at least its main roads in good condition, and the overall condition of the road network would be preserved or improved.

A third option presented in the analysis was a budget that would ensure a satisfactory level of condition. However, it turned out that this was not even the cheapest option. Namely, the annual budget would amount to €211 million, which would only ensure that roads with very high traffic volumes remain in at least good condition, while the overall state of the road network would deteriorate.

The authors of the analysis explained that under the satisfactory condition level budget, total expenditures would be higher because allowing roads to deteriorate to poor condition would lead to more expensive repairs in the future.

These scenarios did not take into account additional needs that may arise from development measures connected to the construction of the Rail Baltica railway.

The analysis also revealed that as of last year, the backlog in Estonia's road network funding needs amounted to €2.379 billion, €772 million of which was repair debt, meaning delayed maintenance necessary to preserve the road network.

If this backlog were factored into calculations, maintaining roads in good condition under the optimal scenario would require more than €218 million annually. Including the costs of gradually working through the backlog, the annual cost would rise to average €268 million, with the first five years requiring significantly more spending — €519 million a year.

Under the optimal budget scenario, including the cost of eliminating the development backlog, annual spending would rise to €253 million — and €503 million a year for the first five years.

Over a 30-year period, depending on the scenario, total costs would range from €6.01 billion to €6.53 billion, or an average of €203-218 million a year, with additional development needs on top of that.

Current savings are deceptive

The analysis also pointed out that while the current budget appears to save the state €60 million a year, in reality, the overall condition of the road network will significantly deteriorate as a result, leading to higher total social costs compared to the optimal budget scenario.

Transport Administration director Priit Sauk told ETV's "Terevisioon" that compared to 2019, when a similar analysis was last conducted, the repair debt has gone up by around 12 percent, and investment needs have grown as well.

"On one hand, we see that in the past two to three years, funding has been so much lower that we can't even maintain roads in optimal condition," Sauk acknowledged. "Where do we see this most clearly? Ruts are starting to form on roads, vehicles are wearing down asphalt, road smoothness is suffering and we're definitely seeing cracks, potholes and crumbling. If repairs aren't done in a timely manner, these numbers will likely be much bigger in the future."

He added that while the analysis indicates that optimal road maintenance and upkeep would require approximately €203 million a year, the state's current spending level on roads is around €100 million.

Highlighting a key concern, Sauk recalled that last summer, the Transport Administration was instructed to slash its operational costs by up to 10 percent over the next couple of years. However, maintenance contracts are also included under the authority's operational costs, meaning that these, too, must be reduced.

"Last fall, the previous minister promised to find additional funding to maintain road upkeep at the same level as last year," he recalled. "But since none of that was ever formalized, these discussions are only now beginning with the newly formed government, and during fall budget negotiations we'll need to argue once again that we cannot afford to cut back on road maintenance."

The Transport Administration has projects ready for work on about 100-120 kilometers of the country's main roads, which could be put into action fairly quickly if funding were to become available.

As of last year, Estonia's national road network spanned a total of 16,686 kilometers, including 12,704 kilometers of paved roads.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!