The opposition Reform Party was the most popular political party in Estonia in April, followed by the coalition Center Party, which in turn managed to increase its lead over the coalition Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), according to the results of a nationwide survey commissioned by ERR and conducted by Turu-uuringute AS.
Reform remains in the lead with the support of 27 percent of citizens with a party preference. Support for reform stood at 26 percent in March.
Not far behind is Center, which has the support of 24 percent of voters, up from 22 percent in March.
Support for EKRE has returned to its more typical 17 percent this month, down from the higher than usual 20 percent in March.
The non-parliamentary Eesti 200 remains fourth most popular, with the support of 11 percent of citizens of voting age, down slightly from 12 percent in March.
Support for opposition Social Democratic Party (SDE) stood at 8 and coalition Isamaa at 7 percent, down from 9 and up from 6 percent on month, respectively.
Of smaller non-parliamentary parties, the Estonian Greens had the support of 2 and Richness of Life and Free party 1 percent each of voters.
Of citizens to express a clear voting preference, another 2 percent would vote or independent candidates.
Coalition parties had the combined support of 49 percent of voters with a clear voting preference, while opposition parties saw 34 percent support. Combined with 15 support for non-parliamentary parties, the latter likewise had the support of 49 percent of voters.
Tendencies since the elections
Since the latest general election in March 2019, support for Reform began to grow and support for Center decline over the spring and summer to follow. This trend began to reverse over the fall and winter, however, and saw support for Estonia's two biggest political parties just about equalize in the first months of 2020. Reform began to increase its lead over Center again this March, however a trend which continued in April.
Compared with the results of the Riigikogu elections, support for Isamaa has fallen by nearly half (from 12 to 7 percent), while support for the non-parliamentary Estonia 200 has nearly tripled (from 4 to 11 percent).
Support for SDE and EKRE, meanwhile, has remained more or less stable over the past year, seeing only minor changes from month to month.
Support by demographics
Among both men and women, the most popular parties in April were the Reform Party (26 percent of men and 28 percent of women) and the Center Party (25 percent of men and 24 percent of women).
EKRE is third most popular among both men and women alike, however support for the party is significantly higher among men than among women (22 percent of men and 14 percent of women).
Significantly more women than men, meanwhile, support the SDE (11 percent of women and 3 percent of men). Support for the remaining parties is equal across genders.
Among voters aged 50 and under, Reform remains the clear popular favorite with the support of 32 percent of voters. Center, meanwhile, saw below average support at 18 percent.
In the 50-64 age group, support for Reform, Center and EKRE was nearly equal at 25, 23 and 23 percent, respectively.
Center, however, was most popular among voters age 65 and up with 33 percent support. Isamaa also saw higher than average support (15 percent) in the over 75 age group.
Among ethnic Estonians, support for Reform remains highest at 30 percent, followed nearly neck and neck by EKRE (19 percent) and Center (18 percent). Support for Estonia 200 stood at 11, for Isamaa at 8 and for the SDE at 7 percent.
Of voters of other ethnicities, support for Center remained highest at 51 percent, while support for Reform stood at 12, for EKRE at 10, for Estonia 200 at 10 and for the SDE at 9 percent.
Support among voters with higher education was highest for Reform at 34 percent. Below average among these voters was support for Center at 19 percent.
Among those with a high school diploma or equivalent education, Center and Reform were equally popular at 27 and 24 percent, respectively.
Most popular among voters with a primary or basic school education are EKRE (28 percent) and Center (27 percent).
The Center Party is the most popular party in Ida-Viru County (33 percent) and in Tallinn (34 percent). Not far behind in Tallinn, however, is the Reform Party with the support of 29 percent of those polled.
Reform is the most popular party in Harju County (33 percent) and Southern Estonia (30 percent).
Most popular in Western Estonia is EKRE (30 percent), while in Central Estonia, support is tied between EKRE and Isamaa (23 percent each), followed closely by Reform (21 percent) and Center (20 percent).
Support for both Center and the SDE is slightly higher in towns and cities than in rural areas, with support for Center standing at 27 percent in towns and cities and 20 percent in rural areas, and support for the SDE at 9 and 5 percent, respectively.
Support for EKRE, meanwhile, indicates the opposite trend: 15 percent of town- and city-dwellers and 22 percent of rural residents support EKRE. Support for the remaining parties did not differ significantly between urban and rural areas.
Support for Reform remains highest among those with the highest income levels (those whose net monthly income per household member exceeds €1,000) at 37 percent.
Support for Center, meanwhile, is highest among those with the lowest income levels (those whose net monthly income per household member falls below €500) at 35 percent.
Support for EKRE and the SDE is likewise highest among those with lower income levels at 24 and 23 percent, respectively. Support for these parties among higher income levels stood at 15 and 7 percent, respectively.
Support for other political parties remained steady across income levels.
Due to the coronavirus outbreak, no data was collected face to face. 56 percent of participants were polled online and 44 percent were contacted via SMS which directed them to the online survey. A total of 560 people were polled online and 440 people were contacted to be surveyed via SMS.
When surveying 1,000 people, the maximum error does not exceed ±3.1 percent.
Editor: Aili Vahtla