Ratings: Reform still most popular but gap with other parties narrowing

Party support in March, according to Kantar Emor.
Party support in March, according to Kantar Emor. Source: Kantar Emor

The opposition Reform Party is still firmly most popular in terms of voter support, but its rating has seen a downwards trajectory over the past six months, according to recent research by pollsters Kantar Emor.

Whereas support for Reform, which is the largest party in terms of Riigikogu seats at 34 but is still in opposition, stood at 35 percent last summer, it stands at 29 percent according to the latest Kantar Emor figures, ERR's online news in Estonian reports.

Coalition party the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) is in second place at 21 percent of support.

Aivar Voog, head of research at Kantar Emor, said that EKRE, with its 21 percent support rate, stood at the same support level it had shortly before the March 2019 general election, and its best rating in its history.

The Center Party, the largest party in the coalition with 25 seats, currently ranks third in the Kantar Emor ratings, and has been stable at 17-18 percent support for the past four months. Voog noted that the party had not been able to restore its earlier levels of support.

Support for the other opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (SDE) stood at 12 percent, though non-parliamentary party Estonia 200 was one percentage point higher at 13 percent.

Isamaa, the third coalition party, dipped below the five percent threshold needed for Riigikogu seats under Estonia's election rules in the March results, and stood at 4 percent support.

"Isamaa is clearly overshadowed by its major competitor, EKRE, and is firmly in sixth place in the rankings," commented Voog.

Kantar Emor's March measurement was conducted after the declaration of an emergency situation in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, which has had a positive effect on the overall support for the coalition, increasing by three percentage points compared with February.

Of the remaining non-parliamentary parties, the Estonian Greens received three percent support and the Richness of Life two percent, while the Free Party, which had six seats in the previous Riigikogu, stood at one percent.

The Kantar Emor study was conducted online between 12-18. March. A total of 1,118 Estonian citizens of voting age, aged 18–84, were questioned. Percentages of political ratings for parties come from those who expressed a political preference. The share of "don't know" stood at 18.5 percent in March. Kantar Emor claims a maximum error margin of +/-2.6 percent.

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Editor: Andrew Whyte

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