The 2019/2020 Estonian Human Development Report, published three years ago, warned that due to increasing dependence on cars, city streets are figuratively becoming traffic pipelines, where the space for other road users is shrinking. This leads to a decline in the quality of streets as public spaces, and car dependence begins to hinder overall accessibility in cities.

According to the report, prioritizing accessibility based on the needs of car users is one-sided, as it reduces the mobility options and quality for other groups, including pedestrians, cyclists, the elderly and people with special needs. However, there are signs that the growth in car usage is gradually slowing in Estonia's urban regions, with more people showing interest in planning that promotes inclusive public spaces.

Currently, Estonia ranks just below the most car-dependent countries in the European Union – such as Italy, Luxembourg, Malta and Finland – in terms of registered cars per 1,000 inhabitants. However, Estonia has surpassed most of the so-called Western European countries in this regard.

Lack of public transport options forcing suburbanites to drive

Tallinn University's urban studies professor Tauri Tuvikene, commenting on the capital's traffic issues, acknowledged that the city cannot avoid dealing with the sheer number of cars on the roads. "Traffic is gridlocked because there are simply too many cars. In addition to Tallinn residents, we must also consider those who commute daily from the surrounding municipalities," he said.

The Human Development Report noted that, over the past 20 years, suburban sprawl has occurred in the larger urban regions. New residential, commercial, service and industrial areas have been developed outside densely populated zones, but these areas have not been comprehensively planned. As a result, residents engage in daily commuting between city centers and suburban neighborhoods.

Tuvikene identified inadequate public transport as the primary shortfall, as it fails to provide quick and convenient access in and out of the city. A notable exception is Keila, where a strong rail connection enables residents to make 16 percent of their trips by train. In contrast, the Human Development Report highlighted Saku Municipality, which also has a railway line, but with sparse train service and poor connections to Tallinn. As a result, only 1 percent of trips to the capital are made by train there.

Despite the rapid increase in car usage, Tauri Tuvikene has observed a significant shift in mindset over the past 10-15 years, particularly among the younger generation. "The potential for cycling has largely been underutilized, but it's evident in the cityscape that the number of cyclists has grown significantly. Opportunities for these people to travel by bike should be greatly expanded. The more people we get onto bikes, the fewer cars there will be. There's no other solution; people need to be encouraged to move differently," the professor explained.

For this reason, Tuvikene finds it difficult to understand some of the actions taken by Tallinn Deputy Mayor Kristjan Järvan (Isamaa) aimed at restricting the use of bicycles. "A recent example is the Pärnu maantee bridge. This certainly does not send a positive message to bicycle users," he noted.

Trips by car becoming longer

According to the professor, the time and distance spent commuting to work in Estonia have steadily increased year after year. "This shows that homes and workplaces are growing further apart, and people are spending more and more time in their cars," he said, attributing much of this to suburban sprawl.

The Human Development Report states that, according to the Transport Administration, the total mileage driven by cars increased by nearly 16 percent between 2013 and 2017.

Statistics also show that nearly a tenth of all car trips are related to taking children to school or kindergarten. Every day, 12 percent of residents in the outskirts of Tallinn are involved in driving someone, with the majority of this responsibility falling on women aged up to 34. This reflects a global trend seen in other urban regions, where suburban living leads to more frequent car use, particularly for transporting children, a role that primarily falls to mothers.

According to Tuvikene, it's important to acknowledge that Tallinn's population is steadily increasing, both due to migration from other parts of Estonia and from abroad. "Various predictions suggest that by 2025, another 100,000 residents could be added to Tallinn. This means that all forms of movement within the city will increase as well," he noted.

Problems of city center businesses

There have been claims in the media suggesting that pushing cars out of city centers could negatively impact businesses there. However, Tauri Tuvikene says he is not aware of any such examples from around the world. In fact, he points to cases that show the opposite.

"I know several examples from the U.S. where efforts were made to maintain car access in city centers by creating large numbers of parking spaces. This often leads to a decrease in the value of land use in cities and can effectively lead to the decline of downtown areas," explained the urban studies professor.

According to Tuvikene, most customers for city center businesses tend to be pedestrians walking by. "It's much easier to increase the number of customers this way. Attracting car users is more difficult, given the additional costs associated with parking. I wouldn't rely on cars to sustain the use of city centers," he said.

Similarly, Dago Antov, a traffic management professor at Tallinn University of Technology (TalTech), could not provide any examples where reducing traffic in city centers had led to their decline. He noted that the topic has been well-researched, including a study on Stockholm after the introduction of congestion charges. "It turned out that the turnover of businesses within the restricted area grew faster," the professor cited.

Some changes were still noticeable. "It was no longer worthwhile to sell certain goods within the restricted area. This means that businesses relying on large-scale transport – such as furniture stores, construction material shops and similar enterprises – either changed their business focus or relocated," Antov added. He also pointed out that two-thirds of the traffic in Tallinn's city center is transit traffic, which does not significantly benefit local businesses.

Gap with Western Europe

Dago Antov observed that driving one kilometer in Tallinn now takes significantly longer compared to five or ten years ago. "This is generally a phenomenon across Eastern Europe and the post-socialist world. We're not car-obsessed here, but rather making up for lost time. From the late 1940s until the 1990s, there were strict limitations on car ownership," Antov noted.

During the Soviet era, the state controlled who could own a car, and having one was considered an unattainable luxury, often reserved for loyal party members or those who stood out in some way. "The pace of motorization was therefore much slower compared to what was happening elsewhere at the time," he added.

As a result, changes related to urban space and car usage are also happening with a delay. "We've been talking about a car tax for the past few years, but I mentioned five or six years ago that it was inevitable here, as it's enforced everywhere else in Europe, and we won't escape it either," Antov said.

In other words, Estonia and much of Eastern Europe have reached a point on the motorization curve where the negative consequences – such as traffic congestion, air pollution and safety concerns – are becoming increasingly visible.

"We've actually gone through a completely normal process but lag Western Europe by 30 to 40 years. Now, we are trying to catch up very quickly, which is why this topic is raising pulses in society. People see that something needs to be done about car dependence, as it's been addressed elsewhere. However, elsewhere it was not the consequence of foresight, but because the problems became apparent much earlier," explained Antov.

As an exception, Antov highlighted the United States, where most cities only began to develop after the invention of the automobile. "The U.S. has always been very car-oriented, although some cities there are now trying to curb car dependence," he said. Unlike in Western Europe, cities over 300 years old are rare in America, which has influenced how mobility functions for their residents.

According to Antov, the first warnings about car dependence in Europe began to emerge in the 1950s and 1960s. After World War II, Germany's Volkswagen and France's Citroën started producing affordable cars for the masses, allowing farmers to transport goods to cities and workers to commute to factories. War-torn countries encouraged car-centered urban landscapes because public transportation was expensive, and funds were already scarce.

"Today, we look to cities like Amsterdam, London or Stockholm as examples – places with congestion charges. These are very large cities, and it's in these places that the problems of car dependence were felt first. People simply couldn't get to work or home in a reasonable amount of time," Antov noted.

Unnecessary traffic in the heart of Tallinn

One of Tallinn's unique features, according to Dago Antov, is the high volume of through traffic compared to traffic actually related to the city center. "We once estimated that two-thirds of the traffic we currently see within the city center is made up of vehicles that don't actually want to be there at all," the researcher noted.

"We simply don't have many other options. If you start navigation in a car and ask how to get from Viimsi to Mustamäe, it directs you through the city center because that's the fastest route. A Viimsi resident could bypass this by taking Peterburi tee, but that would result in a significantly larger detour, offering no real time savings, even with the city center traffic jams," Antov explained.

To improve Tallinn's traffic management, Tauri Tuvikene suggested the first step should be to lower speed limits in the city center. "There was a debate regarding how wide lanes should be on Pärnu maantee. If we reduce speeds, we can settle for narrower lanes, which is safer. In fact, this may not even reduce the road's capacity, especially in the central zone," he pointed out.

Additionally, speed limits impact noise levels in the urban environment. "We can achieve a lot just by lowering speeds. So, in my opinion, we should confidently reduce speed limits," Tuvikene concluded.

Little room for bicycle paths

One of the most contentious issues among the residents of the capital has become the construction of bike lanes. "When Tallinn began building bike lanes about ten years ago, they were placed wherever there was available space. We built a bike lane and were proud to add a few more kilometers. However, there wasn't much benefit because these lanes didn't really connect anything," admitted Dago Antov. Without addressing actual mobility needs, it was naive to expect a reduction in car usage.

According to Antov, there aren't many options for placing the necessary cycling infrastructure. There's simply not much space between buildings. "New bike lanes have come at the expense of car traffic, and that angers drivers. When they see that there were three lanes before, and now only two remain, and then hear that another one might be taken away, it creates fear that things will get much worse," he added.

If Dago Antov could make an immediate change in Tallinn's traffic, he would start by increasing the speed of public transportation. "Based on a previous study, during rush hour – when traffic congestion is at its peak – public transport in Tallinn is 2.5 times slower than average car traffic," the professor pointed out.

Antov believes that speed is the key to attracting people to use public transport. "Trains have already gained a significant number of passengers because they are fast. I can get from Nõmme to the city in 15 minutes by train, which is not possible by car. If we want to increase the usability of the city center and combat car dependency, public transport must be made as fast as possible," he emphasized.

Since it is not feasible to drastically increase the speed of public transport itself, Antov suggests identifying and eliminating bottlenecks. "For instance, we can reduce the time spent waiting at traffic lights or other obstacles," the professor explained.

One example he mentioned is the tram traveling from the T1 Mall to Stockmann, which spends much of its time waiting for green lights at various intersections. "There's a nice green wave for cars along Tartu maantee, but not for the tram, which carries 200 people in a single vehicle," Antov noted.

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