Some time ago, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that his party had been the target of a large-scale cyberattack. He also indicated that the attack originated from Russia or Belarus and lasted around 12 hours. In and of itself, this is hardly major news — cyberattacks, especially those coming from the East, occur regularly across Europe.

Still, the attention is warranted, given that Poland is holding presidential elections on May 18. Ahead of elections, cyberattacks and other forms of interference may become increasingly common in many countries. And that's regardless of geography — just consider the American-owned social media platforms.

People are becoming increasingly dependent on the echo chambers of social media, and through them, election outcomes are ever more susceptible to manipulation. But it's not just elections being influenced — public sentiment and attitudes in general are also being shaped. In Poland's case, the most notable disinformation efforts have so far served Russian interests.

For several reasons, Moscow sees Poland as a thorn in its side. First, Poland is emerging as an increasingly important and outspoken player in both NATO and the European Union, especially on defense and security matters. This is particularly true under the current government led by the Civic Platform party.

Second, Poland has been a steadfast supporter of Ukraine. And third, rooted in its own historical experience, Poland has long been a sharp critic of Moscow. Any one of these reasons alone would be enough for the Russian leadership to allocate funds and personnel to try to influence Poles.

Those efforts to sway public opinion in Poland have had an impact. A network of pro-Russian websites operates in Poland, spreading Kremlin propaganda and amplifying anti-Ukrainian and anti-Western narratives. This kind of activity is being observed across Europe, including in Estonia. It's not just about anti-Ukrainian messaging — there are also accusations directed at Poland itself, alleging that it's stoking war and plotting military aggression against Russia and Belarus.

In Poland, stirring up anti-Ukrainian sentiment is historically easier. The two nations have yet to fully reconcile over the Volhynia massacres, where large numbers of Poles and in the aftermath Ukrainians were killed during and after World War II.

In 2023 alone, an estimated 327,000 online comments targeting Ukrainians and inciting hatred against them appeared in the Polish internet space, potentially reaching a combined audience of 75 million people. The platform formerly known as Twitter (now X) was the main channel for this content, accounting for nearly 85 percent of it.

These efforts have borne fruit: in a recent poll, 30 percent of Polish respondents said they disliked Ukrainians — a figure that is 21 points higher than in 2023.

It seems quite clear that, ahead of the elections, Moscow is not content to merely shape public sentiment. It also wants to see a politician with a "more appropriate" worldview elected — but that may prove difficult. Anti-Russian attitudes run deep in Poland, and the majority of presidential candidates support increasing defense spending and strengthening national security.

Polish President Andrzej Duda's second term ends in August. The presidential election is set for May 18. If no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote, a runoff will be held on June 1. Judging by the current lineup of candidates, Rafal Trzaskowski — mayor of Warsaw and the candidate for the ruling Civic Platform — appears to have the lead, polling between 32 and 36 percent.

Second in popularity seems to be Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by the opposition Law and Justice Party. A conservative nationalist, Nawrocki is currently the head of Poland's Institute of National Remembrance and enjoys about 23 percent support. His campaign focuses on national sovereignty, pushing back against overreach by the European Union and upholding the controversial judicial reforms enacted during his party's previous time in power.

In third place is the more colorful figure of Slawomir Mentzen, the candidate for the far-right Confederation party. Like Nawrocki, he takes a cautious stance on supporting Ukraine and emphasizes strengthening Poland's own defense capabilities over providing military aid to Kyiv. He advocates for liberalizing gun laws and opposes abortion under any circumstances.

Mentzen appears to be the most social media-savvy of the candidates, targeting young first-time voters. He has also introduced a unique campaign tool: beer. He has his own craft beer brand, which he uses as a campaign prop to encourage voters to join him for discussions over a pint. Mentzen has even stated that a deal with Vladimir Putin is necessary to end the conflict in Ukraine. As the most radical of the top three candidates, he may attract investment from outside supporters who align with his views.

There are several other candidates polling below 5 percent, but they're worth skipping over. Remember Romania's elections, where social media almost propelled an unknown candidate to victory in a short span of time? Mentzen's third-place standing should not be underestimated. In fact, it's quite possible that the ruling Civic Platform could lose the presidency.

If the current polling numbers hold, it's likely that the Law and Justice candidate Nawrocki will advance to the second round, where he could pick up the support of Mentzen's base and win. That would mean the status quo remains unchanged: a president from the opposition and a government led by Civic Platform.

It's expected that Poland's elections will draw intense scrutiny from foreign interference watchdogs — and that would be valuable information for the rest of Europe. Russia is pouring billions of euros into influence operations across the continent, and virtually every country has political parties and figures with questionable affiliations. Voices shaped in echo chambers may end up influencing the future of Europe as a whole.

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