December party ratings: Reform in the lead, Isamaa on election threshold

December party ratings compared with March 3 Riigikogu election results.
December party ratings compared with March 3 Riigikogu election results. Source: Siim Lõvi/ERR; collage: JJ Oidermaa

When it comes to Riigikogu election preferences, the opposition Reform Party remains the most popular with the support of 29 percent of voters, while support for the coalition Centre Party exceeded its March 3 election results and support for the coalition Isamaa teeters on the election threshold for the second month in a row, it appears from the results of a nationwide poll commissioned by ERR and conducted by Turu-uuringute AS.

If Riigikogu elections were to take place tomorrow, they would be won by the Reform Party. Compared with last month, support for the party fell by one percentage point, which falls within the range of statistical error. Nonetheless, support for the biggest opposition party has been on a downward trend since August, when it polled with 34 percent support. December's figure of 29 percent matches its March 3 election result of 28.9 percent.

Support for the coalition Centre Party stood at 25 percent in December, up 2 percent on month. This is also the best result the prime minister's party has seen since Election Day, when it earned 23.1 percent of the vote. The party's lowest rating this year, 19 percent, dates back to June.

Despite the scandal surrounding its previous rural affairs minister, support for the coalition Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) remained steady at 17 percent for the third month in a row. EKRE earned 17.8 percent of the vote in the Riigikogu elections, and support for the junior coalition party has remained relatively stable throughout the year, ranging from 16-19 percent.

Fourth in popularity in December was the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDE) with 10 percent support, matching its 9.8 percent election result as well as its level of support in June, prior to the party's election of a new chairman.

From Nov. 28 through Dec. 9, Turu-uuringute AS surveyed a total of 1,014 people, including 511 in person and 503 in an online panel. When surveying 1,000 people, the maximum error does not exceed ±3.1 percent.

While support for these four parliamentary parties essentially matched their respective election results, support for the coalition Isamaa has teetered on the 5-percent election threshold for the past two months; the junior coalition party had earned 11.4 percent of the vote in March.

The non-parliamentary Estonia 200, which earned 4.4 percent of the vote in the general election, likewise earned the support of 5 percent of respondents in December.

Of other non-parliamentary parties, the Estonian Greens were supported by 3, Richness of Life 1 and the Free Party likewise 1 percent of voters.

The three coalition parties ⁠— Centre, EKRE and Isamaa ⁠— had the total support of 47 percent and the opposition ⁠— Reform and SDE ⁠— 39 percent of respondents in December. Adding in the support of non-parliamentary parties, however, parties not represented in the government commanded the support of 49 percent of voters this month.

Another 4 percent indicated they would vote for independent candidates.


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Editor: Aili Vahtla

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