Who is Estonia's new prime minister Kristen Michal?

Minister of Climate Kristen Michal is set to replace Kaja Kallas as prime minister and chairman of the Reform Party later this summer. But who is he, why is he suited for the role and what happens next?
Who is Kristen Michal?
The 48-year-old is from Tallinn, a lawyer by profession and a reserve officer in the Defense Forces. He has three sons and is in a common-law marriage. As well as Estonian, he speaks English, Finnish, German and Russian. You can find him on X and Instagram.
Michal is a long-term member of the Reform Party, having joined in 1996 – 27 years ago – and is a member of its board.
Since May 2023, he has been the minister of climate and founded the ministry from scratch last year. Michal has previously held the economic affairs and infrastructure (2015-2016) and justice (2011-2012) portfolios.
He has been a member of the 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th and 14th governments, headed Riigikogu committees and was head of Reform's Tallinn City Council group.
Michal is known to be ambitious and it has been an open secret that he has wanted the top job for a long time. Postimees wrote that his "appointment to this position has been considered inevitable for years." He was always seen as the frontrunner to replace Kallas over the last year, ahead of Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur.
But Michal has also faced his fair share of scandals. "The journey to the Stenbock House for Michal has been long, rough and at times filled with suffering," the newspaper wrote, referencing the 2012 "plastic bag scandal" which saw accusations of money laundering and illegal party financing levied against him. The charges were dropped in 2015 due to lack of evidence.
Michal will be elected chairman on September 8. He first ran for the position in 2017 and lost to Hanno Pevkur.
How is Michal different from Kaja Kallas?
"He aims to distinguish himself from Kallas through stability as prime minister," Postimees wrote, suggesting Kallas' governments were "turbulent and full of conflicts".
"While Kallas was spontaneous and full of surprises, Michal, although characterized as somewhat cunning, has grown more calm, planning and patient over time, and is known as a very strong organizer (a trait Kallas sometimes seemed to lack)," the paper wrote.
Michal is expected to focus more on domestic politics and leave international affairs to others, such as the foreign minister or president.
He is also seen as a better domestic communicator than Kallas, who excelled internationally but often hit the wrong notes at home.
Michal dodged the question on Saturday when asked how his strengths differ from Kallas': "I think that every leader, every prime minister has their own style. Rather, I'd say I have a lot to learn from previous prime ministers. Kaja Kallas is brilliant and strong in foreign policy, while Andrus Ansip was systematic and Jüri Ratas cheerful and hardworking. I have plenty to learn. I'll try to pull it off."
What is his vision for the next government?
The areas Michal has highlighted are the economy, defense and leadership.
Economy: restoring Estonia's competitiveness is a priority; balancing the budget and reducing the deficit; and reforming the heavily criticized activity-based budgeting system and making it more transparent.
Defense: "building a secure Estonia" and potentially introducing a new temporary "broad-based" tax to increase defense spending. The sector is expected to be spared any future austerity measures.
Leadership: The government has been widely criticized for making few decisions over the last year since it was known Kallas was likely to be offered a top job elsewhere – although Kallas denies this. Michal told ERR: "I think people expect that the government should work as a team, the coalition should work as a team."
What happens next?
Kaja Kallas is set to submit her resignation in mid-July after the NATO summit in Washington on July 9-11, the Reform Party confirmed.
Under the law, the sitting government is dissolved when a prime minister resigns.
Protocol then dictates that the largest party in the Riigikogu gets the first chance to form a government. As the prime ministerial candidate for the largest party, President Alar Karis will grant Michal permission to try.
Michal will then launch negotiations to create a coalition agreement. After this has been concluded, he will present the future coalition to Karis for approval.
The government will then be sworn in by the Riigikogu and begin its work.
At the moment it is not known exactly when Kallas will resign, or a new government will take office.
Will the current Reform-SDE-Eesti 200 coalition continue?
Probably.
The three parties have a significant majority in the Riigikogu between them. Reform (38), SDE (14) and Eesti 200 (13) have 65 votes out of a possible 101.
But technically, Reform and SDE have enough votes between them – 52 – to have a very slender majority and not need a third party.
Michal has said it is likely the current government will continue, but it needs to be discussed with Reform's board. He pointed out more than 52 votes are often needed to pass legislation, which suggests a three-party coalition, not two.
Both coalition partners SDE and Eesti 200 have said they want to continue in the current lineup.
There are also few options when it comes to replacements. All three parties have ruled out working with EKRE. Center, having lost ten seats since January, is not a realistic prospect.
It is not considered likely that the most popular opposition party Isamaa will join the coalition. Michal has suggested this would be a bad fit. Chairman Urmas Reinsalu believes staying in opposition is better for the party at present.
What could be negotiated in the new coalition agreement?
Technically everything is on the table during discussions. Michal could try to change the parties in the coalition or the current allocation of ministries. At the very least, the minister of climate will need to be replaced.
Eesti 200 has said its "personalized state" plan needs modernizing and SDE want to refocus on security.
Reform has already formed a group to renegotiate and informal discussions are likely to start soon. Official negotiations will begin after Kallas resigns.
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Editor: Helen Wright, Marcus Turovski