Kiviselg said at Estonian MoD briefing on Friday that in the battlespace, the downward trend in the number of combat contacts has continued, Russia continues to suffer heavy losses, and both sides continue long‑range strikes into each other's rear areas.

During this week, about 200 combat contacts per day have taken place, he noted.

"The most intense fighting has occurred in the same areas as in recent weeks: in Donetsk, the Pokrovsk and Konstantynivka directions; in Kharkiv oblast, the Southern Slobozhanske direction; in Zaporizhzhia, the Hulyaipole direction; and in Donetsk also the Lyman direction. Ukraine's counterattacks have continued in the Kupiansk direction in Kharkiv oblast, and in Donetsk in the Sloviansk, Lyman, and Kramatorsk directions," Kiviselg said.

"Losses of the Russian Federation have remained at an average of around 1,700 soldiers per day, which means the sixth consecutive week with more than 10,000 killed or wounded fighters per week. In response, Russia is slightly changing its behavior pattern: attempts are being made to break Ukraine's unity with intensive and very long‑lasting long‑range strikes," the military intel chief said.

Kiviselg pointed out that on 4 October Russia announced its intention to intensify long‑range strikes on Ukraine, and during the past 241st week such strikes hit various targets in 13 Ukrainian oblasts, followed in many places by power outages.

Ukraine setting up air defenses

Russia also repeatedly attacked bridges over the Dnipro River — both in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia — attempting to intimidate civilians, hinder everyday life in Ukraine, and thereby affect the economy.

"In Kyiv, air‑defense systems operating with artificial intelligence have begun to be placed to protect the bridges, and alternative solutions are being sought in case traffic on the bridges is halted for a longer period; the possibility of installing pontoon bridges over the Dnipro river is also being examined," Kiviselg said.

Kiviselg noted that according to Ukrainian data, about 330 educational institutions in Kyiv have been damaged in airstrikes during the war — roughly one‑third of all educational institutions there — and in the first eight months of this year, 107 educational institutions have been hit.

"Ukraine's rail transport is also in a very difficult situation. More than 500 locomotives have been damaged during the war, and this year alone 60 percent of them have been hit. Attacks against railway infrastructure are 40 percent higher this year than during the entire year 2025. So we see that Russia has intensified attacks both against educational institutions and against railway and transport hubs," Kiviselg said.

"Ukraine, for its part, has carried out medium‑ and long‑range strikes against Russian fuel‑industry facilities in Volgograd, Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, and Moscow oblast. Military‑strategic targets have also been attacked in occupied areas in Krasnodar, and in Bryansk and Oryol oblasts, and in the Republic of Adygea," he said.

Russia's fuel exports diminished

According to Kiviselg, the impact of Ukraine's long‑range strikes has begun to clearly appear in Russia's fuel exports. If in 2025 Black Sea ports exported an average of 200,000 tons of fuel per week, then according to public data this transport fell to zero in the third week of September. "Russia's diesel and gas‑oil exports are currently taking place through the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk and amount to about 81,000 tons," Kiviselg said.

Kiviselg said that between 1 and 30 September, Ukraine liberated, according to public sources, 25 to 80 square kilometers of territory, compared with last September, when Russia occupied 258 square kilometers.

"The trend is changing significantly, and last September Russia did not suffer such extensive losses as this year. Speaking of Operation Vivaldi, which began by the Ukrainians in late spring, it is likely that much larger areas have been liberated there — we are talking about more than 100 square kilometers," Kiviselg said.

Kiviselg emphasized that the Russian Federation has not come any closer to its stated goal of occupying the entire Donetsk oblast.

"Large personnel losses reflect rather that unit leaders and commanders on the ground are trying to fight their way to lines that have already been reported to higher leadership as occupied areas. We will likely see similar intensity in the coming weeks — perhaps intensity will decrease, but personnel losses on the front will continue. From this we also see that Putin's statements, as if Russians had additionally occupied 1,300 square kilometers during September, are not true; these are rather doomed attempts by commanders to achieve previously advertised results," Kiviselg commented.

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