SDE leaving office changes Riigikogu dynamic, constitutional amendment prospects

While Monday's removal from coalition came as a nasty surprise to many Social Democratic (SDE) Riigikogu members, the party is already setting about planning where it goes next, particularly since the change has altered the dynamics at parliament – not necessarily in favor of the continuing Reform-Eesti 200 coalition.
One of the first important discussions will concern amending the constitution on voting rights, "Aktuaalne kaamera" reported.
SDE leaving office does not mean the party is toothless. Party vice-chair Tanel Kiik said SDE will continue backing the compromise proposal it put forward to its former coalition partners, which would allow gray passport-holders to retain their voting rights in local elections, alongside citizens of Estonia, of the EU, and of NATO states.
The bill to do so is already under process.
Kiik said: "If any amendments get made to this constitutional bill, which has already passed two readings, then it is quite sure that SDE would not support it."

"If the current version remains intact, then there is a real possibility that the constitution will be amended," Kiik added.
Since a constitutional amendment requires a majority of two-thirds at the 101-seat Riigikogu, SDE leaving office with its 14 seats will have tipped the balance, as Reform and Eesti 200 alone do not have two-thirds of the Riigikogu but rather a little more over 50 percent.
This is all happening with just a few months to go until the local elections.
Isamaa chair Urmas Reinsalu acknowledged that the opposition from former coalition partners has made the situation more fragile.
Reinsalu said: "It is undoubtedly the responsibility of SDE, who have taken the Riigikogu hostage. But it is also, of course, the prime minister's responsibility, this endangering the constitutional amendment with this timing."
Martin Helme, chair of the opposition Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), also said the opposition in the Riigikogu, together with SDE, is surely in a stronger position.

With SDE gone from the coalition, the latter's Riigikogu voting support is now significantly smaller, meaning the coalition's voting discipline must be better.
Riigikogu faction leaders immediately gathered to discuss the constitutional amendments once it was clear SDE had been ejected from office, with some parties now wanting to proceed with a so-called sunset proposal.
Helme said this would entail: "Only citizens of the Republic of Estonia being left eligible [to vote] at all elections, but non-citizens would be given a transition period, allowing them to vote in local elections this time around."
"This aligns with what SDE themselves have said — that the number of gray passport holders has been diminishing over time," though at the same time, SDE has not signaled its approval of the sunset clause, Helme added, while "the Center Party is opposed in any case."
As for the continuing, bipartite coalition, Helme said: "The next very risky point for them is the local government elections. /.../ There is a very high probability that this current continuing government, which has very little support, may collapse again."
Reinsalu said the Michal government has wasted time on important security decisions and miscalculated on tax hikes.
While Reform has not extended a formal invitation for Reinsalu and Isamaa to join it in coalition, this has been in the air – though Reinsalu said the party had no interest in joining.

He reiterated a line he took at the weekend, that the Michal-led Reform-majority government is not appropriate for Estonia.
SDE had four government ministers, though only two of them have a Riigikogu mandate, namely Lauri Läänemets and Riina Sikkut. Piret Hartman and Vladimir Svet are the other two. Svet, who was infrastructure minister until Monday, did not win a Riigikogu seat. He came straight from Tallinn City Government to the national government last summer, leaving the Center Party to join SDE in the process.
Government ministers do not sit at the Riigikogu but if they hold a Riigikogu mandate must return to parliament, with the alternate MP who took that spot having to vacate.
The local elections take place in October this year.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Merili Nael
Source: 'Aktuaalne kaamera,' reporter Maria-Ann Rohemäe.