In a recent blog post, Oidsalu cautioned that pre-election pressure could lead to costly purchases without enough consideration of the associated long-term maintenance.

Speaking to ERR, he said his biggest concern is Estonia's National Defense Development Plan becoming a patchwork document as it is continually expanded.

"Each branch of the military walks away with some shiny new gift," Oidsalu said, bringing up 90-meter ships for the Navy, missile defense or aircraft for the Air Force and more firepower for the Army. "I've gotten the impression this year that it's Christmas in the defense sector."

The expert warned that adding capabilities Estonia cannot afford to maintain could divert funds from more immediate needs, including ammunition stocks.

"If we start building 'trophy' capabilities that we'll never be able to manage to develop at a meaningful scale, we're wasting resources that could instead go toward increasing the number of days we could sustain combat."

Minister of Defense Martin Herem said Tuesday that the threat posed by Russia could grow if the war in Ukraine ends, making it necessary to develop certain capabilities quickly even if they prove difficult to maintain.

He later clarified that he did not expect Estonia to actually acquire capabilities beyond what it could sustain.

'Take a step back'

Oidsalu emphasized that Estonia has little experience estimating the long-term costs of major naval vessels and missile defense systems, which international experience suggests often exceed initial estimates.

"We should take a step back and calculate over the long term whether we can afford to deploy all these capabilities," he added.

While acknowledging that the military's assessment of its needs has changed this year, Oidsalu said planning cannot remain in flux. He warned against adding impressive-sounding capabilities in the run-up to an election without ensuring Estonia can actually afford to put them into service and maintain them.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and X and never miss an update!