In an opinion piece published by Postimees, security expert Meelis Oidsalu argued that there is a significant risk that Estonia's military defense development plan could expand beyond the country's means and that spending decisions made ahead of elections may fail to account for long-term maintenance costs.

Herem said Oidsalu's concerns are partly justified but argued that the risk is necessary.

"In my assessment, the next few years will be a fairly dangerous period. If the war in Ukraine ends, Russia could threaten us, and therefore we need to develop certain capabilities very quickly and perhaps accept the risk that maintaining them later will be somewhat difficult. In that case, we could also place some of these capabilities into reserve later, so to speak. But Oidsalu's concerns are justified in some respects, and we have to take such issues into account regardless," he said.

Herem added that the issue is not whether Estonia can afford the costs, but how the acquired capabilities will be maintained and what trade-offs may be required.

"Maintenance means actually using equipment. If you put equipment in storage and do not use it, it does not wear out, making maintenance easier. We have allies, for example, whose tanks face strict mileage limits, meaning they often cannot be used in exercises because they have already reached their annual mileage cap. That is one way to make maintenance more affordable," he said.

Herem took part in a meeting of the National Defense Council chaired by the President Ülle Madise on Tuesday, where he presented proposals for additions to the national defense development plan. He said the proposals are based on new knowledge acquired by the Estonian Defense Forces.

"Since the development plan presented in January, which has not yet been approved, the Defense Forces have conducted numerous tests and experiments that have provided new insights into how maneuver units should fight. We have also learned a great deal from Ukraine about how air defense requirements have changed, and those lessons should be incorporated. The same applies to certain aspects of our intelligence capabilities," he said.

"But overall, nothing was done poorly or incorrectly before. Developments have taken place, we have become smarter, and these updates need to be included. A development plan is not simply a shopping list. It must define objectives, methods for achieving them, and those responsible for implementation. As a result, the Ministry of Defense wants to broaden the scope of the national defense development plan somewhat," Herem added.

Herem noted that updating capabilities does not necessarily require additional funding and that some earlier proposals can be replaced with new ones.

"One option is to review air defense. If some of the systems we have planned to procure do not perform well against certain types of aerial threats, they can be replaced with other systems. For example, we could buy fewer missiles and acquire different types of air defense assets, such as aircraft and air-to-air defense systems, and then adjust the balance between them," he said.

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