Georgian Dream's decision came in response to the EU's criticism of the recent parliamentary elections, which observers said were plagued by irregularities, and saw the party win a majority.

The majority of Georgians favor joining the EU and thousands took to the streets in protest. President Salome Zourabichvili backed the protesters and called on civil servants to resign. At least five ambassadors have already done so.

The authorities used violence, tear gas, and water cannons against protesters. In response, the Baltics sanctioned a dozen people connected with law enforcement agencies saying the use of force is unjustified. The Baltic and Polish presidents expressed profound disappointment. Estonia cut development funding to Georgia, which has previously been seen as a priority country. Minister of Foreign Affairs Margus Tsahkna (Eesti 200) said Georgia's leadership is heading directly into Russia's sphere of influence.

The protests continue. But what lies ahead?

***

According to Shota Kakabadze, a political analyst at the Georgian Institute of Politics, who completed a PhD in political science at the University of Tartu, in the days immediately after the parliamentary elections, the mood in Georgia was "extremely gloomy."

"It felt like Georgian Dream had managed to, one way or another, solidify its grip on power for the next four years," he said.

"However, the suspension of EU integration [talks] once again illustrated that the political parties in Georgia are completely irrelevant and not able to reach out to the broader public."

"The protests are very much self-organized and driven from the bottom-up, which makes it extremely difficult for the ruling party to crack down on them," Kakabadze explained, adding that the main focus is no longer on the contestation of the election results but on "fighting to return Georgia back to the democratic path."

"And that's the feeling in the society right now. That either Georgia manages to survive as a democracy or, from January, once the new president is sworn in, there will be no turning back from authoritarianism," Kakabadze said.

Kakabadze believes Estonia's response to the situation has been the correct one: "Considering [Estonia has] sanctioned some of the Georgian policy makers and downgraded its partnership with the Georgian government."

Having attended the protests in Tbilisi on some days, the analyst also pointed to the differences between being part of the crowd on the streets and the views he has encountered on TV or when discussing the situation with experts.

"When you are at the protests, you feel very enthusiastic. You feel you are not alone and there are many people who think like you. You feel support – someone is sharing food, and someone else is sharing hot wine. Someone is boiling soup in a giant pot and so on," he said.

"But then you talk to experts or watch TV, and the mood is very pessimistic."

***

Political researcher Irakli Sirbiladze also previously studied at the Johan Skytte Institute of Political Studies in Tartu. Now living in Tbilisi, Sirbiladze has participated in the current protests on a daily basis.

He told ERR News he was not surprised at Georgian Dream's actions following the contested parliamentary election results.

"For the last two years, Georgian Dream has become increasingly anti-Western and authoritarian," Sirbiladze explained, pointing to the earlier suppression of protests against the so-called "foreign agent" law in spring.

Nevertheless, "given the relatively mooted reaction of the public to the allegations of election fraud," Sirbiladze believes Georgian Dream had not anticipated such huge protests to erupt. Now, he added, Georgia's ruling party is "playing a game of chicken – if they are the ones who swerve first, then they know their demise is coming."

Sirbiladze did express surprise, however, at the decision to postpone EU accession talks, adding that it was this in particular that brought large numbers of Georgians out onto the streets of Tbilisi and other cities around the country.

"The decision was surprising because it ended the ambiguity which Georgian Dream had deployed as a strategy during the electoral campaign, namely that they still wanted Georgia to join the EU but on their own terms," he explained.

"On paper and in their words [Georgian Dream], still claim to be committed to EU integration by fulfilling the EU association agreement agenda," he said, adding that the party also realizes "genuine reforms threaten their hold on power. "Therefore, they are not comfortable with EU enlargement reports that assess [Georgia's] annual progress on the EU path."

"Some think that Georgian Dream's decision was the result of instructions from Russia but there is no direct evidence to support this claim," he added.

Sirbiladze believes Georgian Dream is unlikely to compromise any time soon because doing so could lead to them losing power. "We will continue to see political – but hopefully not armed – turbulence in Georgia for the coming weeks and months," he said, adding that  "even potential EU and U.S. sanctions are unlikely to bring Georgian Dream to negotiate new and fairer elections."

Sirbiladze also believes Georgian Dream may even resort to using more force to hold onto power if necessary, "putting Georgia on the brink of a civil war – something Georgians thought was a matter for the past."

Like many others around the world, he pointed out that the ruling party is now waiting to see how the incoming Trump Administration will respond to the developments before making its next move. "We will probably see more tensions in the second half of January onwards," he predicted.

Like Kakabadze, Sirbiladze praised Estonia's response to the crisis, adding that its "statements supporting Georgians as well as [the Estonian] government's decision to impose travel related sanctions on Georgian Dream officials are very important. Estonia should continue to advocate for similar and even more severe sanctions against Georgian Dream leadership at the EU level," he added.

***

Giorgi Ormotsadze, a former masters' student at the University of Tartu's Johan Skytte Institute of Political Studies, now lives in Tbilisi and is taking part in the protests. He told ERR News the protests rose "purely out of collective anger."

"There was no need to ask what was happening; as a society, we instinctively gathered in the streets, without any prior planning or calls from political leaders," he said. "Frankly, I'm not happy about having to attend the protests, and I wish it weren't necessary. But at the same time, if not me, then who?"

While protests have taken place before, Ormotsadze said he did not anticipate the scale of force and unlawful actions Georgian Dream would use to suppress these protests

"Almost everyone (or at least the overwhelming majority) who gets arrested faces physical abuse, humiliation, and the theft of personal belongings such as mobile phones or valuables. If someone avoids severe beatings, they can consider themselves fortunate," he told ERR News.

He has been surprised by the developments with law enforcement agencies themselves and the use of masked civilians to attack journalists. "Police officers stood by, watching without intervening," he said.

"In hindsight, it was likely naive of me to expect the police to intervene in such atrocities, even when they were present. This lack of accountability has unfortunately become a recurring pattern."

Ormotsadze said the "most terrifying aspect" is the "complete breakdown of law and order." "There is no institution or branch of government you can turn to for justice," he told ERR News.

"It's frightening to think about being beaten by special forces or the police, but the inability to find justice — that's the scariest part. Yet, ironically, I also believe it's the regime's greatest weakness as it erodes the systems from within."

Speaking about the EU accession process, he said the prime minister's comments to suspend the process until 2028 and then join the bloc in 2030 were "delusional and misleading". The process is likely to take at least a decade and Ormotsadze said Georgia's progress "stalled long before this announcement."

He said most Georgians want to be part of the European Union and "no one has the right to steal that aspiration from us." "Georgians understand that halting EU integration is not merely a delay; it is a step toward isolation and a reversal of the democratic aspirations the country has fought for," he said.

"There is no room for Georgia's isolation. Isolation means edging closer to Russia, and if history has taught us anything, it's that with Russia, blood and tears are inevitable," he said.

However, he believes, the protests go beyond the subject of the EU accession process and should not be viewed in isolation. Ormotsadze says dissatisfaction has been growing for several years after the government started turning away from Europe.

"What we are fighting for is freedom. Freedom to choose what we want to do. Freedom that Georgian people currently lack as all the branches of government have been captured by the illegitimate government. By the party that falsified the result of elections to remain in power,' he said.

"Attending the protests is the most civil way to express my stance, and there is no alternative. To call Georgia a democratic state would be misleading — if not an outright lie. The government does not respond to its people, leaving protests as the only viable way to make our voices heard. When all is said and done, I will at least know that I was there, fulfilling my civic duty."

Throughout the last two weeks, Ormotsadze said his mood had swung "between pessimism and optimism" about the potential outcomes of the protests. He said the majority of Georgians support the action, even if they cannot participate: "But I remain hopeful. Without hope, there wouldn't be a protest to begin with."

***

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